| Tod + PPP mode is committed to effectively solve the intensive allocation of urban land resources,improve the comprehensive benefits of land,reduce the financial pressure of the government,and realize the sustainable development of the city.The combination of TOD +PPP and urban rail transit planning and development will become a new engine of urban development in China in the future.However,Tod project has the characteristics of large volume,high investment amount,long fund recovery period and high requirements for operation capacity.The difficulty of the project is far greater than that of the general rail transit station construction.In addition,the introduction of TOD and PPP mode is relatively late in China,and the construction of Urban Rail Transit under TOD + PPP mode is still in the exploratory stage.The lack of experience will bring more risks,which will affect the realization of investment objectives.Therefore,it is urgent to carry out risk identification and evaluation research on urban rail transit projects facing TOD + PPP mode.Firstly,based on the development background of TOD + PPP mode in China’s urban rail transit and related research status at home and abroad,this paper summarizes the application ideas,procedures and difficulties of TOD + PPP mode in urban rail transit projects,and expounds the risk characteristics and research process of urban rail transit projects under this mode.Then,the WBS-RBS risk matrix is used to identify and classify the risks in the whole life cycle of the project.Through the three-dimensional description of risk and questionnaire survey,the risk evaluation index system is constructed.Then,the risk evaluation model is constructed by combining AHP with the number of three-dimensional intervals.The model first uses AHP to calculate the relative weight of each level index,and then determines the risk degree and risk index level of the project by the level evaluation of the number of three-dimensional intervals.Finally,the sample data collected by representative TOD project of station A are selected.Through the calculation and analysis of the risk assessment model of ternary interval number,the effective reliability of the evaluation index system and evaluation model is demonstrated.This paper reflects the degree of risk impact through the objective evaluation of each risk index,aiming to provide some reference for the project company to make risk decisions,and help to improve the risk management level of the project team.Hope to enrich the risk research of urban rail transit project under TOD + PPP mode,and promote the development of Urban Rail Transit under TOD + PPP mode in China. |
