Research On Economic Post Evaluation Of Nanchang-Jiujiang Intercity Passenger Rail Project

Railway construction projects need a lot of capital investment and resources,and must meet rigorous standards and technology-intensive and labor-intensive requirements.Therefore,it is very necessary to carry out post-evaluation of railway construction projects to determine whether the expected objectives are achieved,whether the project is reasonable,whether the project is efficient.Nanchang-Jiujiang intercity passenger railway is the second intercity railway after Beijing-Tianjin railway,which belongs to the earliest intercity railway in China,has achieved many innovations and breakthroughs in technical fields.As a demonstration project,it can provide reference for the construction of future railway projects.At the first,this paper combs the current research situation of the application of high-speed railway evaluation,Monte Carlo method and gray prediction theory in the project economic evaluation,collects the information and data of the Nanchang-Jiujiang Intercity Passenger Project.Secondly,according to the guidance documents of Economic Evaluation Measures for Railway Construction Projects(Second Edition)and Comprehensive Evaluation Method for Safety and Quality service Efficiency of High-Speed Railway Corporation and China Railway Corporation,considering the actual situation of the project,this paper constructs evaluation index system,and uses comparative analysis,economic benefit analysis and other methods to evaluate the economic benefits of the Nanchang-Jiujiang intercity passenger project.The main evaluations include the financial post-evaluation(profitability,liquidity and operational efficiency)and national economy post-evaluation.Lastly,this paper uses Monte Carlo method to simulate the project's post-economic evaluation,and compares the two results.The specific steps of simulation are: firstly,using gray prediction GM(1,1)model to predict the project's cash flows from 2019 to 2031,then establishing the corresponding mathematical model and determining the probability distribution of each key random variables,finally,using Crystal Ball software to simulation.The results of the economic post-evaluation of the project show that the actual economic benefit of the Nanchang-Jiujiang intercity railway project is greater than the expected value.The Monte Carlo simulation result is closer to the robust estimate of post-evaluation.On the one hand,it further proves that the project has achieved greater economic benefits than initial target.On the other hand,it shows that the post-evaluation results are reliable.Based on the above analysis and results,it can be pointed out that,as China's early-stage intercity railway,Nanchang-Jiujiang intercity railway can provide guidance and reference in project operation and management for other railway construction projects,and Monte Carlo method can improve the scientific and reliability of project evaluation,and provide a new perspective for railway projects evaluation.At last,in view of the evaluation content,this paper proposed some suggestions for post evaluation of railway project and project operation and management of the execution institution and the central enterprise.