Monte Carlo Based Time Risk Assessment Of Nuclear Power Project

China is in the "golden age" of vigorously developing Nuclear Power Energy.The general contracted construction projects of nuclear power plants are characterized by long construction period,large investment,complex technical solution and high requirements for nuclear safety supervision.Risk factors in various stages of the construction process are often complex,changeable and difficult to control.For nearly10 years,in the process of China’s nuclear power plant engineering,the application of project risk management in each stage has different challenges,especially in the qualitative and quantitative risk assessment which has more development space for tools,evaluation techniques,management practices and application.The author studied the research status of risk management evaluation in china and abroad.Search the application situation of the project risk quantification method and management mechanism construction.This paper evaluates the risk probability in the total construction period of nuclear power project by the Monte Carlo method.Based on the practice application of the under-construction NPP,this paper focuses on the application research.Firstly,analyzes the detailed implementation steps and the key problems during Monte Carlo implementation.Secondly,build a progress model for the analysis of the total construction period.Analyze the main logic of the schedule model based on the critical path method,Combine with the actual situation and problems of the project.Add the available diesel engine,DCS arrival,pumping room water and other sub-critical paths to build the overall analysis model of the total construction duration.Meanwhile,sort the list of risk events that can be loaded on the model based on the accumulated risk experience of nuclear power projects.Then,select the appropriate evaluation experts and organize the experts to evaluate the three-point estimated duration and risk event through the expert evaluation meeting.Finally,input all above the data into the PRA risk quantification analysis software.Obtain the risk probability distribution curve and sensitive factor distribution diagram of the total project duration through simulation,and apply the conclusion in the decision-making process of the total project duration of the nuclear power project,so as to realize the management significance of the risk management assistance decision.Through the application of Monte Carlo method,this paper realizes the risk assessment of the total construction period of the project.And summarizes the optimized part in the risk quantitative assessment management process on the basis of reviewing the whole assessment process,and then constructs and optimizes the risk quantitative assessment mechanism of the project.At the same time,based on years of experience in nuclear power risk management,this paper discusses the role of risk quantitative evaluation management mechanism in promoting the development of the risk management business,contract management mechanism,progress management mechanism and multi-project risk management system.