Study On Risk Management Of The Science Popularization Small Satellite Project Of Bayi Youth

As the rapid development of China's aerospace industry,the size of the aerospace market is expanding rapidly and the market also becomes more commercialized and diversified.Owing to the contribution from private enterprises,research institutes,and commercial funding,a health developing environment has been established for China's aerospace industry.However,China's current satellite project management is mainly targeted at complex systems and high-risk satellite projects.The management sy stem cannot be applied to highly flexible small commercial satellite project.Therefore,it is highly desired to establish the risk management for such small satellite projects.This motivation gives birth to the "B ayi" satellite project.This is the firs t satellite project in China with successfully launched satellite by middle school students.This paper takes this project as the example to systematically analyze and study the basic risk theory,risk assessment index system,risk level assessment,risk response plan and control strategy of small satellite project.In this paper,the project risk,technical risk,management risk,human risk,environmental risk and other risk sources in the development process of small satellite project are studied in depth from risk identification,risk quantification,risk evaluation,risk planning,risk control,risk supervision,risk decision-making and other aspects.The basic connotation and development process of risk and project risk management are expounded,and the basic methods and ideas of small satellite project risk management are introduced.Based on the analysis of the basic characteristics of small satellite project,the main risk factors affecting small satellite project are identified and analyzed,and the risk assessment index system of small satellite project is constructed.Based on the results of the expert survey,this paper studies the influence weight of each risk factor on the small satellite project,and statistics the probability of each risk factor through the expert questionnaire,and gives the small satellite risk assessment results.In this paper,qualitative and quantitative comprehensive analysis method is adopted,and statistical analysis,data analysis and other means are integrated to organically combine the knowledge,experience and theory of expert group,so as to realize the whole process management of small satellite project risk.In this paper,HHM(Hierarchical Holographic Modeling)method was first used to carry out holographic scannin g of the risks of small satellite projects by referring to the classification of risk sources of space projects,and the risk assessment index system of small satellite projects was established.Then by using ANP(Analytical Network Process)method,the com parative advantage of each risk factor is compared,the comparative matrix is established,and the comparative weight of risk factors is calculated by Super Dicisions.FCE(Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation)is used to evaluate the risk level of small satellite project.Finally,according to the actual situation of small satellite project,the risk management plan is made,and different countermeasures are adopted for different risk factors to improve the effectiveness of risk control.This paper summarizes the research status of risk management of space projects at home and abroad from the theoretical level,and makes use of small satellite projects to apply,practice and test the theoretical methods,which is a supplement and improvement of the theoretical rese arch of risk management of China's space projects.This paper studies the whole process of small satellite project risk management,which not only has reference significance for the risk management of China's commercial satellite application projects,but also provides theoretical basis and reference for China's aerospace research institutions to promote the landing and successful implementation of civil-military integration projects.