PPP Project Of New Industrial City Based On Monte Carlo Simulation Research On Risk Management

In recent years,the traditional industrial park development mode highlights more and more problems.Therefore,in order to promote the construction,operation privatization and sustainable development of China’s industrial new town,PPP mode has been introduced into the construction of industrial new town projects,and has been vigorously developed in recent years.However,due to the short application time of PPP mode in industrial new town in China,there are many risk factors involved,and the risk management mechanism is not perfect.Therefore,the key to ensure the efficient construction and operation of industrial new town PPP project is to comprehensively identify the risk factors existing in the project,correctly assess the risk level,reasonably determine the risk sharing mechanism of the project,and formulate risk countermeasures.In the process of research,this paper takes the risk management of PPP project of industrial new town as the core,and first constructs the risk index system of PPP project of industrial new town.The list of risk factors of PPP project in new industrial city is preliminarily determined by literature analysis,and the revised risk index system is obtained by factor analysis through expert questionnaire.Secondly,the risk analysis model of PPP project in new industrial city is constructed.On the basis of the constructed risk index system,the risk index is quantified,the relative weight of each risk index is determined by the improved OWA operator,the correlation between variables is considered,the correlation coefficient is introduced,and crystal is used Ball software is used to establish the risk analysis model of industrial new town PPP project based on Monte Carlo simulation.The quantified risk value is introduced into the analysis model to get the risk level of each variable and build the risk level identification of industrial new town PPP project.Finally,taking the PPP project of industrial new town in Ziyang Airport Economic Zone of Tianfu International Airport as an example,on the basis of identifying the early risk factors of the project,the risk analysis model is used to analyze,and the risk level and key risk factors of the project are obtained.According to the principle of risk sharing,the risk bearing subject of the PPP project of industrial new town is defined The risk response strategies are put forward.The Monte Carlo risk analysis model constructed in this paper can provide reference and reference for the risk management of other industrial new town PPP projects.The research results have practical significance for the improvement of risk management level of industrial new town PPP project in Ziyang Airport Economic Zone of Tianfu International Airport.