Security Risk Assessment Of Power System Based On Improved Monte Carlo Method

The power system has the basic characteristics of ensuring the reliability of power supply,power quality and being able to provide electricity to the community continuously and safely.As power systems grow in size and structure become increasingly complex,the power system security issues are becoming increasingly important.In recent years,the blackouts at home and abroad have not only caused huge economic losses but also destroyed the steady development of the society.Therefore,it is of great significance to use reasonable methods to evaluate the risks faced by the system scientifically and comprehensively,identify the potential risks of the system,and maintain the safe and stable operation of the power system.In view of this,this paper explores the power system risk assessment methods,the main work is summarized as follows:1.Studied the process of power system risk assessment,introduced the outage model used in risk assessment,evaluation method,evaluation analysis process and calculation method of risk index.The research method was established as non-sequential Monte-Carlo simulation in this paper.2.Modeling the IEEE-RTS79 test system by using matlab program.The program of the algorithm is compiled,and the risk assessment is carried out using conventional non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation method,equal scatter sampling method,important sampling method and adaptive sampling method,respectively,and the pros and cons of the calculation results are compared.3.The improved Monte Carlo simulation method was proposed in this paper which take advantage of both adaptive sampling method and equal scatter sampling method.This method can effectively improve the convergence speed of the calculated variance.An example was compiled to verify its effectiveness.4.The improved Monte Carlo simulation method is applied to evaluate the risk of IEEE-RTS79 test system under different conditions,and the evaluation results are analyzed and discussed.