| With the high speed development of Chinese economic society,the energy consumption per unit GDP is also increasing,and the demand for power is increasing day by day.The rapid development of power industry is required to support the development of economy and society.At the same time,the development of economy and power is restricted by resource shortage,environmental impact and other factors.In 2015,the State Council issued the opinions on further deepening the reform of the electric power system,the reform will focus on the transmission,distribution and sale of electricity.In the government work report at the beginning of 2019,it is also pointed out that the charges and transmission and distribution prices of power grid links should be reduced,and the average industrial and commercial price should be reduced by 10%.Therefore,the study of general industrial and commercial electricity price reform and analysis of its impact on various sectors of the national economy has become a very key issue in the electricity price reform.This paper first summarizes the basic principle of social accounting matrix,and the renewal(RAS)and balance(CE,cross entropy)methods of social accounting matrix.Then,taking 2015 as the base year,the macro Sam table is compiled,and the structural characteristics and data sources of the social accounting matrix are described in detail.According to the prepared macro Sam table,the control figures are provided for the sub Sam table.Finally,the SAM sub table is compiled according to the Department classification of the input-output table in 2015.Next,the basic principles of two decomposition methods based on social accounting matrix,multiplier decomposition and structured path decomposition,are analyzed and compared.It can be seen that compared with the multiplier analysis,the advantage of structured path analysis is that it can more clearly show the transmission path of impact under the general balanced data system,find the key nodes in the transmission process,and provide more accurate and detailed information for scientific management and policy recommendations.On the basis of the prepared 2015 China social accounting matrix,a variety of scenarios are simulated,and the impact of China’s general industrial and commercial electricity price reform on various sectors of the national economy is empirically analyzed through multiplier decomposition and structural path analysis.Based on the 2015 national social accounting matrix,using multiplier analysis and structured path analysis methods,and quantifying the empirical results,the final research results show that:(1)China’s industrial structure in 2015:the top industries in the national economy are textile industry(first),metal smelting industry(second),agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery(third),machinery and electrical equipment manufacturing industry(fourth),and construction industry(fifth).(2)High energy consumption industries such as machinery,electrical equipment manufacturing industry and petrochemical industry are obviously affected by the adjustment of electricity price.The correlation between coal mining and power industry is very high,which shows that at present,China is still dominated by thermal power generation.(3)The reduction of general industrial and commercial electricity price has the greatest impact on capital account(i.e.total investment),followed by labor account.The pull effect of the overall consumption expenditure of urban residents is higher than that of rural residents,which indicates that the demand for electricity of urban residents is more vulnerable to the impact of electricity price.Among the urban residents,the most significant one is the urban high-income households,and the most significant one is the rural low-income households.(4)Based on the structural path analysis,the following conclusions can be drawn:① Electric power and thermal power production and supply industry conduct coal mining and separation industry,petrochemical industry,mechanical and electrical equipment manufacturing industry,transportation and mail industry,financial insurance industry and real estate industry mainly through direct path,with full impact accounting for a high proportion of the overall impact,and these departments can also conduct other industries as important nodes.②The indirect path transmission of electric power and thermal power production and supply industry to non-metallic mineral products,metal smelting products,wholesale and retail industry,leasing and business service industry,the proportion of the total impact to the overall impact is higher than the direct path transmission impact to these sectors,indicating that the industrial relationship between sectors is strong.③Coal mining and beneficiation industry is an important node,which has strong connection with other industries,elements and institutions.④The overall impact of power and heat production and supply industry on capital factors is higher than that on labor factors,but the proportion of its total impact on the overall impact is significantly lower than that of labor factors.⑤The overall impact of electricity price changes on low-income rural households and high-income urban households is relatively large,and its direct impact is greater than the indirect impact.Finally,this paper summarizes the research work,and puts forward the outlook and policy suggestions for the future research work. |
PDF Full Text Request