Impact Analysis Of Marginal Cost And Social Welfare Level Of Electricity Price Reform Based On Cross-subsidy Problem

For a long time,the price of electricity in China has not been priced based on cost,but based on factors such as historical level,social stability,residents ’endurance,and administrative mechanisms.There are serious cross-subsidies among different types of users in the power industry.On the one hand,cross-subsidies are not conducive to the optimal allocation of social resources,leading to inefficient use of resources,hindering the adjustment of the economic structure,and thus affecting poverty reduction and equity;on the other hand,the prices formed by cross-subsidies do not meet the principles of market supply and demand The price signal sent to consumers is also wrong,which can easily lead to inefficient consumption.In July 2017,the National Development and Reform Commission pointed out that one of the next steps of China’s price marketization reform is to "appropriately deal with the issue of cross-subsidies",and has determined a cost reduction task and target of 1 trillion yuan,of which electricity price is expected to contribute 100 billion Yuan;November 2017,the National Development and Reform Commission issued "Opinions on comprehensively deepening the reform of the price mechanism"clearly pointed out that "research on the gradual reduction of electric power cross-subsidies and improve the policy of residential electricity prices";the 2018 government work report further clearly proposed "general industrial and commercial electricity prices An average reduction of 10%".The goal of power system reform is to eliminate the cross-subsidy of electricity prices for end users.If you want to cancel the cross-subsidy for electricity prices,you must understand the degree of cross-subsidy for end users.On the basis of understanding the degree of cross-subsidies,it is of great significance for decision-making to analyze whether the reduction of cross-subsidies and the reform of the power system have reduced the marginal cost of electricity prices,and the changes in the social welfare level after electricity price adjustment under different scenarios.The first part is an introduction.This section summarizes the research background and significance of this article,and at the same time reviews the current status of electricity price cross-subsidies and related research on the relationship between cross-subsidy reform and social welfare levels in China,and finally introduces the main research content and research innovation of this article And deficiency.The second part is the calculation of the scale of domestic electricity price cross-subsidies in the power industry.Based on the Ramsey pricing theory,the paper builds an empirical model of electricity demand and price of industrial and residential users,determines the price elasticity of electricity demand,calculates the Ramsey price index,and uses the spread method and the marginal cost of electricity prices to measure the cross-subsidy of electricity prices at the national and regional levels.The scale and degree are expected to provide the government with a rational basis for formulating electricity prices according to the degree of cross-subsidy,and to provide a theoretical basis for reforming cross-subsidies between different types of electricity prices.The third part is to use BP neural network to predict the relationship between social welfare level and cross-subsidy.The paper uses entropy weight method and gray correlation analysis method to measure the social welfare level of economy,culture,resources and environment and social security society.On this basis,the BP neural network algorithm is used to construct the cross-subsidy quota of residential electricity price,power system reform and society An empirical model of welfare levels predicts that during the reform of the power system,residential electricity prices will decrease by 10%,20%,and 30%,industrial electricity prices will increase by 10%,20%,and 30%.Whether to develop in the desired direction,and to maximize the level of social welfare as the goal,find out the best power system reform plan for each region.The fourth part is the research on the relationship between the cross-subsidy amount of electricity price and the marginal cost of electricity price.The ultimate goal of power system reform is to reduce the marginal cost of electricity prices.The paper builds an empirical model of market-oriented power system reform,power cross-subsidy quotas and marginal cost of electricity prices,and explores the current market reform model and its impact on the marginal cost of electricity prices.Degree,to determine whether the gradual reduction of the cross-subsidy amount can effectively reduce the marginal cost of electricity prices.The fifth part is the research conclusion and policy recommendations.According to the research on cross-subsidies,it proposes operable countermeasures for China’s electricity price and power industry reform.The research results show that:(1)At present,the electricity prices of residents and industrial users nationwide and in various regions deviate from Ramsey’s theoretical electricity prices.The amount of subsidies provided by industrial users and the amount of subsidies received by residential users are relatively large.(2)For the degree of cross-subsidization of end users,when comparing the end-user sales price of each grid and the ratio of Ramsey’s theoretical electricity price to 1,it is found that the deviation of industrial electricity prices is more serious than the deviation of residential electricity prices.(3)Overall,the mitigation of the current status of electricity price cross-subsidies will have a positive impact on the level of social welfare.(4)The level of social welfare in various regions and years of the country does not gradually increase with the gradual increase of residential electricity prices,nor does it gradually increase with the gradual decrease of industrial electricity prices.(5)With the gradual reduction of the amount of cross-subsidies for users,the marginal cost of electricity prices will gradually decrease.(6)The current market-oriented reform measures can effectively reduce the marginal cost of end-user electricity prices.Compared with existing research,the main innovations of this paper are:(1)Data foundation.This paper constructs and estimates the cross-subsidy situation of residents and industrial users at the national level and the sub-grid and provincial levels in 2017.Taking into account the impact of the new round of power system reform,it is more time-sensitive and complete;(2)Research methods.This paper uses the B-P neural network to construct a nonlinear model of social welfare levels and cross-subsidies and to find the best reform plan for residential and industrial electricity prices with the goal of maximizing social welfare levels;(3)Regional division.This article classifies and analyzes the regional division according to the State Grid,and gives a regionalized reform plan.(4)Research issues.This article makes a preliminary study on the impact of electricity price cross-subsidy quota and market reform on the marginal cost of electricity price.