Research On Importance Of Hydraulic Engineering Activities Based On PERT And Grey Theory

The water conservancy project has the characteristics of large volume structure,numerous construction procedures and long duration of construction period.Therefore,it is affected by many factors during the construction process,which often causes delays in the construction period.Delays in construction time will lead to increased construction costs,which will reduce the benefits of the project.The advance of the construction period will make the project put into use ahead of schedule,but the quality may not be guaranteed due to the catch-up period.Therefore,in the process of hydraulic engineering construction,the progress control during the construction period is particularly important.Strengthening the management of project progress in the process of construction is an important means to achieve project time control,achieve project progress goals,and ensure the smooth completion of large-scale water conservancy projects.In the field of engineering project construction,PERT?Program Evaluation and Review Technique?has been widely used in the development of schedule network planning and project duration control.Domestic and foreign scholars have conducted in-depth research on the probability distribution of activity duration,the determination of critical and non-critical routes,the calculation of completion probability,and the solution of PERT network.PERT theory has achieved some research results,but there are still some problem needs to continue to ponder and explore.For large-scale water conservancy projects,PERT can solve the key routes and key activities in the project,but in the actual construction process,in the face of many key activities,it is still impossible to better determine which activities are more important,and there are still major difficulties in controlling the construction period.This paper takes the network activity process as the research object,based on the network diagram,constructs the PERT network model of the project through activity decomposition,and uses the Monte Carlo simulation method to write the Matlab program to simulate and solve the solution,the average activity duration?t_e?,variance(V_te),activity-time linear correlation coefficient?ACI?,and criticality index?ACP?are used as the key evaluation indicators of the activity,the grey variable weight clustering method is used to establish the evaluation model of activity importance,to distinguish the influence degree of each activity on the whole project duration,to realize the computer with programming language,and to verify the example,so as to provide a reliable basis for the key progress control in the process of project implementation.