Highway Freight Volume Forecasting Based On Rough Set And Grey Theory

World economic development has entered a new era.The global economy is moving forward.It is the integration of economies and mutual influence.The global logistics network for the survival of the global economy is gradually building and improving.China is forming a fast,efficient and comprehensive logistics network.At present,China has completed the basic construction of multi-form,multi-channel,all-round transport logistics network.The transport logistics network has included highway logistics,railway logistics,water transport logistics,ocean logistics and pipeline logistics and other logistics and transport.Which highway logistics become the main force,because it is flexible,fast and efficient and the advantages of large transport logistics network.The state needs to take full account of the benefit in the road construction investment control and highway development strategy in the development.Highway benefits come from road transport.Road transport needs support of road freight.Accurate forecasting results have important implications for guiding future road construction and future economic development.Based on the above background and purpose,the main problem in this paper is to use Rough Set Theory and Gray Theory to analyze and forecast the highway freight.First of all,based on the current research situation at home and abroad,this paper fully analyzes the characteristics of highway freight forecasting model and combines with these characteristics of the relevant theoretical knowledge of learning to lay the foundation for the choice of model selection.Secondly,from the macro and micro aspects of the impact of highway freight factors,to calculate road freight based on acquisition rules.The data of the index is used to generate the information table,and the frequency right is determined by the gray variable weight clustering method.The decision table is generated by using the Rough Set Theory to analyze the information table,the road freight volume growth rate and the frequency right.The use of rules on the growth rate of road freight forecast.Then,the traditional gray Verhulst model is improved to obtain the unbiased gray Verhulst model.The model in the process of improvement is used unbiased GM(1,1)model direct modeling method.The method is to generate the reciprocal of the original sequence.Using the newly generated sequence to build the model.And the errors of the traditional gray Verhulst model and the unbiased gray Verhulst model are analyzed.Finally,the feasibility of the model improvement method and the applicability of the improved model to forecast the road freight volume.The model is simulated by GM(1,1),traditional gray Verhulst model and unbiased gray Verhulst model of Lanzhou to Zhongchuan 2009-2015.The conclusions of this paper mainly include two aspects.On the one hand,using the advantage of Rough Set Theory to reduce the decision table and extract the rules,analyzefactors influencing highway freight volume.On the other hand,the unbiased gray Verhulst model eliminates its inherent deviation and improves the prediction accuracy of road freight,and explains the feasibility and applicability of the improved model.