Study On Optimization Of Risk Management Strategy Of Locolized Small Car Program

China is not only one of the biggest vehicle purchasing markets but also one of the biggest production bases.According to CAAM automotive statistics,the top 17 OEMs have contributed 3.5% of 2015 GDP.Even for those big players,they can only afford conduct several programs at the same time.In other word,each vehicle program plays a key role in the business.Some major vehicle programs have a 10-year life cycle,including 4 years planning and development and 6 years after launch.In this 10 years,market,industry,policy and technology could have huge changes.So,in the initial planning stages,how to investigate all the potential risks is very important.This paper starts from analysis of key risks and risk investigation method of planning stage.Current method only reflects the most possible situation of the potential risk and use the sum of all most possible risks as the total program risk.Using Monte Carlo method is able to simulate all the possibilities of program risks adding together and provide statistics probability of program total risk.The paper provides a real case based practice to discuss and show optimized risk management result based on Monte Carlo method and confirmed program execution plans.