Research On Passenger Flow Forecasting Of The Urban Rail Transit Line 1 In Shijiazhuang

Urban Rail Transit Line 1 in Shijiazhuang is about to open operation, at the early stage of rail transportation opened,the passenger flow prediction can operation the early operation of the train operation organization provides reference data, ensure social and economic benefits of the urban rail transit at the operation early time.With combining the introduction to city conditions, city development plans and rail traffic development plans, analysing passenger flow characteristics and comparing common prediction methods, and considering current situation of shijiazhuang, a traditional four-stage method is selected in this dissertation to forecast the initial and recent passenger flow in line No.1 of shijiazhuang urban rail transit system.As to the specific prediction, this article uses the original units method to forecast the forming of the traffic, gravity model on traffic distribution, Logit model on traffic modes, and uses the software Emme/2 to gain the prediction results of the traffic situation of Urban Metro Line 1 and analyze the principal factors that influence the traffic sensibility. The article shows as results, that most of the traffic concentrates on the central area of city, and there are various factors that influence the traffic, such as the traveling environment, the ticket price and the public transportation system.