Research On Passenger Flow Distribution Modeling And Passenger Flow Impact Evaluation Of Rail Transit Networks Under New Line Access

With the continuous development of urban rail transit,different types of new lines or extension lines will be put into operation every year in the future.The opening of the new line will have an impact on the network topology,passenger flow distribution and passenger flow indicators of rail transit.On the one hand,we need to study the transportation organization of the new line based on its functional positioning.On the other hand,we should also study the adjustment and optimization of the network operation organization based on the changes in passenger travel and network passenger flow distribution after the opening of the new line.Therefore,research on passenger flow distribution modeling and passenger flow impact assessment method of rail transit network under the condition of new line access plays an important role in mastering the changing process of passenger flow,formulating rail transit organization and passenger transport organization under the condition of new line access,improving the structure of rail transit network,optimizing network impact points and operation management after the new line is opened.Based on the above analysis,this paper takes rail transit network passenger flow distribution and passenger flow impact assessment under the condition of new line access as research objects,and constructs a network passenger flow distribution prediction model and network passenger flow impact assessment method under the condition of new line access.Specific research contents include:(1)By analyzing the function positioning and access location of different new lines,the new line access type is summarized and proposed,and by analyzing the characteristics of passenger flow changes of different types of new line access,the impact of new line access on the distribution of network passenger flow is studied;(2)By analyzing and comparing traditional passenger flow forecasting methods and related factors that affect the distribution of passenger flow,a model for predicting the amount of inbound and outbound traffic under the new line access conditions,an OD distribution prediction model and a network passenger flow distribution calculation model are constructed;(3)Analyzing the basic content,method steps and classification of network passenger flow impact assessment,classifying passenger flow impact assessment,and proposing specific methods for passenger flow impact assessment under new line access conditions at different levels;(4)Taking the relevant lines recently opened by Shenzhen Rail Transit as a specific case,analyze the network passenger flow distribution and passenger flow impact assessment under the new line access conditions.The main innovations of the thesis research are reflected in:(1)Qualitative and quantitative analysis of the impact of different types of new line access on the distribution of network passenger flow;(2)Compared with the traditional passenger flow prediction method,the proposed passenger flow distribution prediction model has better operability and convenience,saves more manpower and material resources,and is more in line with the actual situation under the new line access conditions;(3)A comprehensive evaluation method for the impact of network passenger flow under the condition of new line access is proposed.Through the research in this paper,it is helpful for the development of passenger flow prediction and passenger flow impact assessment under the condition of new line access to a deeper and broader direction,and it is also conducive to improving the decision-making level of urban rail transit operation organizations.