The Passenger Flow Forecasting Method And Empirical Study Of The Fast Rail Transit Line S1 In Guiyang

Compared with the urban rail transit,the metropolitan rail transit has many characteristics,such as station spacing,fast transportation and flexible transportation organization,and gradually become an important passenger channel connecting the city and the surrounding area and metropolitan area.Urban rail transit Express solutions in the planning and design and operation of many important issues need to be based on passenger data.However,the current methods and theories for passenger flow forecasting are mainly focused on urban rail transit passenger flow forecast and regional railway passenger flow forecast.The passenger flow forecasting method and theoretical research result of urban rail transit express are relatively few,and not only the forecast result is compared with the actual passenger flow There is a large gap between the different research methods for the same rail transit line passenger flow forecast results are also larger.Aiming at the shortcomings of the theory and method of urban express forecasting and the lack of prediction accuracy,it is necessary to improve and improve the passenger flow forecasting method of city express train in order to improve the scientificity of rail transit passenger flow forecasting in combination with the characteristics of urban express line.At the same time,with the continuous expansion of the scale of Guiyang city,especially the planning and construction of Guian New District,the city express line S1 line planning and construction of a choice of the city,the line of traffic for scientific prediction,for effective construction and organization of operation is important The meaning of.Based on the analysis of the necessity of the construction of the S1 line of Guiyang Rail Transit City Expressway,this paper puts forward the forecasting model of S1 line passenger flow in Guiyang Rail Transit City Expressway,The results are systematically analyzed.In addition,the passenger flow sensitivity of Guiyang Rail Transit City Express Line is studied,and the sensitivity of passenger line in line S1 of Guiyang rail transit city is analyzed.(1)In-depth analysis of the relevant literatures,the concept and composition of the urban rail transit system and the urban express track system are systematically analyzed,and the function and location of the urban express line are introduced,and the urban express And other means of passenger differences and the basic characteristics of urban express passenger flow.(2)Based on the analysis of the SD line planning of Guiyang Rail Transit City Express Line,this paper puts forward that the construction of rail transit city express is the strategic demand of Guiyang central city,the demand for construction of Guian New District,the development demand of Guiyang As well as the promotion of Guiyang traffic integration development strategy needs,therefore,Guiyang rail transit city express line S1 line construction for Guiyang development is necessary.(3)Based on the traffic volume forecasting "four stage" method,combined with the passenger flow characteristics of the Gu line of the Guiyang Rail Transit City Express Line,the passenger flow forecasting model is constructed,and the passenger flow distribution of the S1 line of Guiyang Metro Line is forecasted.The results are analyzed systematically.(4)Using the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)to extract the passenger flow sensitivity factor of Guiyang Rail Transit City Express Line l,the passenger flow sensitivity of Guiyang Rail Transit City Express Line is analyzed and studied.