Research On The Economic Analysis And Development Policies Of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation Project

With the change of climate and the pollution of environment,renewable energy becomes more important,which is of vital importance to the survival and development of mankind.Distributed photovoltaic power has a unique advantage in renewable energy power.To promote the development of renewable energy,China has introduced electricity price subsidies,tax preferences,project approval,grid-connected services and market-oriented construction and other related policies." 13th Five-Year" Plan period,China will further support the distributed photovoltaic industry and promote the development of distributed photovoltaic in the central and eastern regions.But at present,the cost of distributed photovoltaic generation in China is still high.There is still no cost advantage compared with traditional power generation.Therefore,it is very important to analyze the economy of distributed photovoltaic power generation project,explore the space of cost reduction,access path of user-side parity and the mechanism of relevant policies.In this paper,we construct Levelized cost of electricity(LCOE)model of the distributed photovoltaic power generation.First of all,the actual situation of 1MW distributed photovoltaic in 2016 is used as the baseline scenario to analyze on the basis of a great deal of investigation and research.The results show that:for distributed photovoltaic,the economy of the first and the second resource areas are better,and the economy of the third resource area is the worst.Distributed PV LCOE of about 1/6 of the country's regions is lower than the local general industrial and commercial electricity price.These areas can realize the user-side parity,and the economy of the projects is better.Because these areas are rich in solar energy resources and their general industrial and commercial electricity price is relatively high.The sensitivity analysis of the cost of distributed photovoltaic power generation shows that the annual utilization hours is the most sensitive to the impact of distributed photovoltaic LCOE,the second is the unit cost to LCOE,and the financing cost is not sensitive to the other two factors.But its influence is also quite obvious.The annual utilization hours,the unit cost and the financing cost have some room for improvement.Therefore,these three factors will become an important driving force for the decline of distributed photovoltaic LCOE in the future.Based on the above sensitivity analysis results,the cost of distributed photovoltaic power generation in all provinces of China is analyzed in multiple scenarios.The results show that the distributed photovoltaic LCOE will continue to decrease during the "13th Five-Year" Plan period.Under the optimistic scenario in 2020,the photovoltaic LCOE of about 95%of the country's regions is lower than the local general industrial and commercial electricity price,which can achieve the goal of user-side parity.Under the neutral scenario in 2020,70%of the regions can achieve the goal of user-side parity,and 50%of the regions in the pessimistic scenario in 2020 can achieve parity.The provinces that can achieve this goal have two main characteristics:first,the solar energy resource condition is good and the general industry and commerce electricity price is not low,the second is the solar energy resource condition is general,but the general industry and commerce electricity price is higher.The policy is very important to promote the healthy development of distributed photovoltaic industry.Therefore,in this paper,the structural equation model is used to analyze the mechanism of the existing photovoltaic electricity price model,tax preferences,financial subsidies and financing policies on the photovoltaic cost,scale and absorption targets.Based on this,the effects of the existing distributed photovoltaic policies in China are evaluated,and some reasonable policy suggestions are put forward for the further development of distributed photovoltaic in China.