Research On Evaluation System And Model Of Regional Electric Energy Substitution Potential

At present,the international energy landscape is undergoing profound changes.The path of global energy transformation is still being explored.China is also actively promoting the energy revolution to solve related problems including energy security and environmental pressure.In this context,the electric energy substitution faces a large development opportunity,it can effectively improve the energy structure,alleviate the climate problem,and ultimately promote the fundamental change of the energy development mode.The assessment of regional electric energy substitution potential in China is an indispensable step in the effective implementation of electric energy substitution.On the one hand,this research expands the methodological system for assessing regional electric energy substitution potential;on the other hand,it provides some theoretical support for the government to formulate relevant electric energy substitution policies and grid companies to promote the implementation of electric energy substitution according to local conditions.This paper analyzes the factors affecting the potential of electric energy substitution,including economic and social development level,terminal energy consumption structure,economics of electric energy substitution,environmental constraints of electric energy substitution,and electric energy substitution,relevant policy support and relevant infrastructure facilities for electric energy substitution based on the review of relevant data and analysis of existing relevant literature.And on the basis of the principles of scientific,systematic,guiding,concise,objective and fair,combining qualitative and quantitative considerations and considering the characteristics of the power industry,etc,the regional electric energy substitution potential evaluation index system was constructed,including seven first-level indicators and twenty-three second-level indicators,from the seven aspects of economic and social development level,terminal energy consumption structure,energy price,equipment technology and economic level,environmental protection constraints,policy support and supporting facilities.The improved triangular fuzzy number analytic model is constructed based on the triangular fuzzy number and analytic hierarchy process,and the weight of each index in the evaluation index system is determined by this model.At the same time,the matter-element-extension evaluation model is used as an evaluation method for evaluating the regional electric energy substitution potential.In order to verify the effectiveness of the evaluation system and method,the regional electric energy substitution potential evaluation index system and method are applied to evaluate the electric energy substitution potential of Hebei Province.According to the evaluation results,the following conclusions can be drawn: First,the regional electric energy substitution potential assessment index system and model constructed in this paper can effectively evaluate the electric energy substitution potential of a certain region,and at the same time,can obtain favorable factors for promoting electric energy replacement development and factors to be improved that hinder the development of electric energy substitution;Second,the power substitution potential of Hebei Province is “big”.The environmental constraints,economic and social development level,terminal energy consumption structure and equipment technology and economic level of Hebei Province have promoted the development of electric energy substitution in Hebei Province.However,the related policy support for electric energy replacement needs to be further improved.At the same time,the higher electricity price and weak electric energy substitute facilities in Hebei Province hinder the development of electric energy substitution.Finally,this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations for the weak link in the implementation of electric energy substitution in Hebei Province,thus providing relevant theoretical support for promoting the further development of electric energy substitution in Hebei Province.