Risk Early Warning Research On Engineering Project Material Supply Chain Of Z Group

At present,China's infrastructure construction market is in a stage of rapid development,the volume of it is very huge,and the construction of these large-scale engineering projects requires a large amount of construction materials to support.As a wholly-owned subsidiary of ZT Co.,Ltd.,Z Group benefits from the strong terminal demand and resource advantages of various construction units within the ZT system,which can avoid some risks to a certain extent,but because that the project supply chain is a complex dynamic system involve a large number of subjects,and inevitably there are still many risk factors that will seriously affect the construction progress and safety quality of the project.Therefore,it is necessary to study its risk factors and how to conduct risk warnings.Based on the introduction of engineering project supply chain,risk warning and BP neural network,this paper draws a structural diagram of the engineering project material supply chain of Z Group and summarizes the whole life cycle business process of Z Group's supply chain.On this basis,the WBS-RBS method and the fault tree analysis method are used to identify the risks respectively,and the comprehensive identification results are a series of preliminary risk factors.Then,the preliminary risk factor identification results are used to conduct a questionnaire survey as the survey items,and then carry out factor analysis,and finally based on the demand risk,supply risk,operational process risk,an engineering project material supply chain risk early warning indicator system which combined 10 qualitative and quantitative indicators is established,and each indicator was explained and quantified.Then BP neural network is selected to establish the risk early warning model,the training samples are input into the model,and the network model learning training is performed by using MATLAB to achieve the required error precision or the maximum number of learning,and then training completed.At last,the early warning conditions of each individual risk early warning indicator and supply chain comprehensive risk,namely the early warning interval and the early warning limit,are explained,and then different countermeasures are proposed for different levels of risk.This research includes Figure 21,Table 19,and Reference 54.