Evolution Characteristics Of Landscape Pattern In The Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration And Simulation Prediction

As a typical representative of regional urbanization in China,Yangtze river delta city cluster is located at the intersection of the Yangtze River Economic Belt and“the Belt and Road” and has become the core engine for promoting national economic development.However,the rapid expansion of the city has had a huge impact on the regional ecological environment,which is not conducive to the sustainable development of the urban agglomeration.Based on the data of the land use,driving factor data and ecosystem service function of the Yangtze River Delta in 2000,2010 and 2015,this paper analyzes the landscape pattern change characteristics and driving mechanism,and uses the CLUE-S model to carry out the landscape pattern in 2030.It is predicted that the landscape pattern plan in line with regional sustainable development will contribute to the improvement of regional ecological environment quality and lay a foundation for the Yangtze River Delta to step into the world’s leading urban agglomeration.The main results are as follows:(1)Through the ArcGIS software,six landscape types were extracted from the land use data,and the spatial pattern analysis of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration was obtained by spatial analysis.Four driving factors of geography,society and economy were selected,and the driving mechanism of landscape pattern change from 2000 to 2015 was obtained by Logistic regression analysis.In general,the landscape pattern of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration changed significantly,the area of ??grassland and wetland continued to decrease,the forest land grew slowly,and the artificial surface showed a sharp growth trend;the wetland and cultivated land had high probability in the flat terrain,and the artificial surface was concentrated in GDP.An area with high population,large population,and high light intensity.(2)Based on the accuracy test of CLUE-S model,the landscape pattern of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration is predicted according to the historical trend.The landscape pattern change of the Yangtze River Delta region after 15 years isobtained through quantitative analysis: the forest land keeps increasing trend.However,the grassland and cultivated land are seriously degraded,the artificial surface is still growing rapidly,and the degree of fragmentation of the landscape type in the whole area is reduced.However,the newly added artificial surface has caused a certain degree of damage to the ecosystem service function.(3)Determine the number of landscapes in the forecast year by multi-objective equations,and construct the ecological protection red line by using the ecosystem service function superposition analysis method.On this basis,the landscape pattern of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration in 2030 is obtained through the CLUE-S model.The forecast results are more in line with economic needs and environmental protection policy requirements.Compared with historical trend prediction results,the forest land and wetland area are slightly higher,the grassland reduction rate and urban expansion rate are slowed down,and the impact of new artificial surfaces on ecosystem service functions is relatively Weakened.