| With the acceleration of urbanization and industrialization,the implementation of strategies such as urban-rural integration and rural revitalization,people’s material needs and yearning for a better life are increasing,and human beings have negative impacts on land space utilization,industrial structure,and cultivated land resources.It also appeared,which led to the intensive use of land resources,single industrial and economic development,serious ecological damage and other problems.At present,China’s economy has entered a stage of high-quality development.It is an inevitable trend to closely combine development planning with local resource advantages and create a sustainable future.Therefore,it is necessary to study the changing laws of regional three-life space in a long-term series and predict the future.The spatial layout of the three-life space is of practical significance for the formation of a scientific and reasonable space layout of the three-life space.This paper takes the Yangtze River Delta ecological and green integrated development demonstration area as the research object(hereinafter referred to as the demonstration area).First,based on high-scoring images and Google images,visually interpret the current land use status of the demonstration area in 2013,2016 and 2019,and establish The three-dimensional space classification system;secondly,using GIS spatial analysis method and mathematical statistics method to analyze the number and spatial distribution of the three-dimensional space in the demonstration area to explore the change law and characteristics of the three-dimensional space in the demonstration area;thirdly,from the natural,social,cultural and economic perspectives From an equal perspective,16influencing factors were selected,and the logistic binary regression model was used to determine the correlation between each space type and the driving factor;finally,the 2013 Sansheng space data was used to simulate the 2016 and 2019 demonstration areas of the Sansheng space,and compared with the actual situation.By comparison,the applicability of the CLUE-S model is verified;then,based on the current situation of the lower three-generation space in the demonstration area in 2019 as the basic data,combined with the gray forecast model to predict the land demand of the third-generation space in the demonstration area in 2025,the simulation predicts that the demonstration area will be in the conventional area in 2025.To analyze and compare the changes of the three-generation space under three different development scenarios,namely development,economic priority development,and harmonious coexistence between man and nature,and analyze the differences in the three-generation space in the demonstration areas of the three scenarios through the landscape pattern index,and put forward relevant suggestions.In order to give policy makers a certain reference value.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)In the study area,from 2013 to 2019,the production space accounted for a large proportion,while the living space accounted for a small proportion.And during these 7 years,the production space has been decreasing over time,and the living space and ecological space have been increasing on an annual basis.Among them,the production space decreased by about 410.55km~2,the living space increased by54.07km~2,and the ecological space increased by 355.66km~2.From the perspective of the secondary classification,in the past seven years,the agricultural production space in the demonstration area has been greatly reduced,accounting for 103%of the reduction in the production space;the blue ecological space and the green ecological space are almost the same,and the urban living space is increasing.At the same time,rural living space is decreasing,but the increase in urban living space far exceeds the reduction in rural living space.(2)Reveal the changing trend of the three-life space in the demonstration area from 2013 to 2019.During 2013-2019,most of the production space was transferred to the ecological space,and a small part was transferred to the living space.Among the secondary space types,the agricultural production space has the largest transfer-out area,and the transfer-in area is about 1/10 of the transfer-out area.The green ecological space and the industrial production space construct urban living spaces in different proportions.The evolution of the"Sansheng Space"in the demonstration area is obviously uneven,and the evolution of the three areas of Taoyuan Town and Tongli Town(also a development zone of Wujiang District)and Songling Street in Wujiang District is the most prominent.Using the standard deviation ellipse and the center-of-gravity transfer model,the transformation direction of the three-generation spatial change in the demonstration area from 2013 to 2019was discussed.In the past 7 years,the distribution center of production space,living space and ecological space in the demonstration area was near Lili Town,Wujiang District,Suzhou,Jiangsu Province.The distribution center of production and ecological space is in the shape of"vertical 7"as a whole,the center of gravity of living space is basically kept in the shape of"one",and the center of gravity of agricultural production space is distributed in the shape of"slanted one",and it is inclined to the southwest.On the contrary,the rural living space is distributed in the shape of a"slanting one"in the northeast direction.In terms of the spatial distribution range,the three spaces are basically the same,and the spatial distribution ranges from2013 to 2016 are almost the same,but in 2019,the spatial distribution ranges are reduced inward.(3)Select 16 driving factors such as nature,humanities,social economy,etc.,and apply the logistic binary regression analysis to explore the driving force analysis that affects the three-life spatial changes in the demonstration area.The ROC curve is used for verification.It is found that the ROC values are all larger than 0.7,indicating that the The 16 driving factors in the demonstration area can better explain the variation law of the three-life space in the demonstration area.The CLUE-S model was used to simulate the spatial distribution of the three births in the demonstration area in 2016 and 2019.The accuracy analysis showed that the simulation results of the CLUE-S model were credible.(4)The simulation forecast shows that under the conventional development scenario,in 2025,the land used for agricultural production space will decrease sharply,and the total area of industrial production space,urban living space and rural living space will far exceed the area planned in the"Draft";Under the development scenario,in 2025,the industrial production space and urban living space will increase sharply,the ecological space will remain basically stable,and the reduction of agricultural production space will be almost the same as in the conventional development scenario;under the harmonious development scenario of man and nature,in 2025,the agricultural production space is much more than the other two scenarios,the total area of industrial production space,urban living space and rural living space meets the development requirements of the"Draft"for the construction land of the demonstration area,and the reduction of rural living space is much lower than the conventional one.development scenarios.The clustering degree of each spatial land type and the shape regularity of patches are better in the three scenarios.The analysis results show that the development scenario of harmonious coexistence between man and nature is more suitable for the future development of the demonstration area.Under the current development model,more attention should be paid to the protection of the ecological environment,improve the development of green industries,and give full play to the cultural and resource advantages of the Jiangnan water town in the demonstration area to better achieve the goal of sustainable,high-quality and green economic development in the demonstration zone. |
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