Study On Spatial Distribution And Influencing Factors Of Urban Warer Supply System Resilience In The Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration Under Changing Environment

With the climate change and the increase of water demand,the uncertainty that urban water supply system faced by increases.However,the problems existing in the urban water supply system,such as aging,untimely maintenance and renewal,make it difficult for the urban water supply system to adapt to the future urban development,improve the urban water supply system resilience,and realize the safety of urban water supply under the change of external environment.It is very important that the structure and function of the water supply system will not be affected.There are obvious spatial and temporal differences in the resilience of urban water supply system in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.Previous studies on the urban water supply system resilience ignored the spatial spillover effects and the impact of government behavior.Based on this,this paper calculates the urban water supply system resilience of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration,analyzes the spatial correlation,and analyzes the main factors that affect urban water supply system resilience of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.First of all,this paper calculates the urban water supply system resilience of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration from 2008 to 2019,and analyzes the urban water supply system resilience of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration from the two dimensions of time and space,according to different provinces and different city sizes.Combined with Theil index and convergence judgment method,the difference and convergence trend are further analyzed.Thirdly,Moran’s I index is used to test the spatial correlation of urban water supply system resilience of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration,and the main influencing factors of urban water supply system resilience of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration are analyzed from two aspects of urban development and government behavior.Finally,research conclusions are drawn and policy recommendations are put forward.The results of this paper are as follows:(1)There are great differences in the urban water supply system resilience among different provinces and cities,among which Shanghai is the lowest,Zhejiang Province has the highest resilience in most years,Anhui Province is the second and Jiangsu Province is the third.Urban water supply system resilience in medium-sized cities and small cities is higher than that in big cities and mega-cities.Except for 2010 and 2012,there is little difference in the urban water supply system resilience of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.The difference within the group is relatively large,and the gap between groups is relatively small.The contribution rate of internal differences in Anhui Province is the largest.From 2008 to 2019,there is noα convergence but β convergence of the urban water supply system resilience of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.(2)The results of spatial correlation test show that there is a significant positive spatial correlation in the urban water supply system resilience of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration after 2010.Urban water supply system resilience of the urban agglomeration in the south wing is mainly high and high agglomeration,while urban water supply system resilience in the north wing urban agglomeration is low and low agglomeration.Spatio-temporal transition analysis showed that the stability was improved and maintained at a high level during the study period.(3)The metrological results show that the urban water supply system resilience of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration is positively related to the level of industrialization and government regulation,negatively related to the level of urbanization,the level of regional economic development,government revenue,the level of public services,investment in water supply facilities and science and technology expenditure.In different periods and different regions,the coefficient and correlation between the urban water supply system resilience and influencing factors are obviously different.