| At present,the railway transportation network in our country has not been fully formed.The actual impact of railway transportation relative to the civil aviation transportation is just beginning.With the continuous improvement of China’s railway transportation network,China’s civil aviation transport industry will also face greater and greater impact.At present,from the present point of view,it mainly focuses on the research on the regulation reform of single transport mode,and the research on the impact of civil aviation transportation on the national economy and the civil aviation price on railway transportation and railway itself,and the empirical research on the influence of railway transportation to the air transport is relatively small.Most of the existing railway transportation and civil aviation transportation documents are studied by the traditional econometric model of the ordinary least square estimation method(OLS).However,the traditional econometric theory of OLS needs each independent variable to be stable,so the possible problem is that all the independent variables of the time series are stationary.There is a great possibility of false regression.The regression measurement method based on OLS is mostly based on the related economic theory to analyze the variable relationship between the economic models,which makes the dynamic connection between the related variables not guaranteed on the tightness.At the same time,the endogenous variables may appear on the left and right sides of the equation,which makes further estimates and results.It is complicated and difficult to deduce.The mutual influence of railway transportation and civil aviation transportation is studied in depth,which can effectively excavate the basic operation rules between the two,which can make the two people have better market positioning and macro adjustment strategy in their respective transport market,so that the railway transportation and civil aviation transportation can have a good competition.In order to effectively avoid the unnecessary waste of transportation resources,the transportation market channel in China can be well coordinated and can be developed reasonably and effectively.According to the development of both railway transportation and civil aviation transportation and the mutual influence of the two,this paper selects the railway transportation index and the civil aviation transportation index,and determines the time series of the sample interval from 1979 to 2014,and builds the VAR model on this basis,and further carries out the variables through the constructed VAR model.The unit root test,cointegration analysis,Grainger causality test,and the impulse response graph and variance decomposition matrix are used to make a further dynamic analysis of the VAR system.The research shows that: 1.While developing railway transportation,the country needs to consider the effect on civil aviation transportation in the short term and guide it from the policy level,so that the influence of civil aviation passenger transport will develop in a favorable direction.In the long run,it is necessary to consider the coordinated development of railway transportation and civil aviation transportation,and improve the efficiency of railway transportation,which will have a positive impact on the transportation of civil aviation.2,at the present stage,the development of the civil aviation industry has many unreasonable problems in its structure.In the aspect of carrying capacity and infrastructure,there are many imperfect places,including the further improvement and improvement of the service quality of the civil aviation industry,which are bound to the development of the civil aviation industry.While civil aviation has to cope with the impact of rail transport,there are still many urgent needs for improvement.Therefore,this paper suggests that we can adjust and improve the civil aviation industry from the policy,improve the efficiency of civil aviation transportation,increase the carrying capacity of civil aviation transportation,improve the quality of civil aviation transportation service,and promote the development of the civil aviation industry from all dimensions,and then promote the common use of railway transportation and civil aviation transportation. |
