Dissertation Research On Risk Analysis Of Shooting Training In A Regiment As An Example Based On The Accident Tree Method

Even if the dependence of light weapons in the modern high-tech wars is gradually decreased,but the role of light weapons in the war is no reduction,which is still the main weapons for the infantry.throughout the military wars in the world,we can find the infantry whose main weapons is light ones is still the one of main combat units.Light weapons will become the main force for implementing pinpoint attacks to the enemy's vital part at the beginning of 21 Century,which will be become the "nemesis" of some high-tech weapons under certain conditions.However,under the new situation,the impact of light weapons in the combat activities,military exercises and training operations of Army troops is more obvious and the intensity of the shooting training is also increased.In particular,the upgrading of weapons and equipment under the condition of information technology will increase the difficulty of shooting training and may be result into security risks.May be it will lead to the occurrence of training accidents if there is a mistake.It is particularly important for managers to take effective preventive measures to ensure the successful shooting training tasks.In the past analysis of fire safety accidents,the risk factors of shooting training are considered mostly by the experience which is summed up for many years.And it usually considers only one factor and take the people's activities in the accident as the primary factors,which is difficult to find the root causes fundamentally and provide references for further improvement measures.In order to effectively curb the risks of shooting training and improve the pertinence and reliability of preventive measures,we study the issues of shooting training risk taking a regiment.Firstly we systematically expound the current situation of the shooting training management in the regiment and analyze various factors such as human factors,management factors,material factors,environmental factors and so on from the comprehensive view,which influence the safety of shooting training.Then,according to the above factors and based on the comprehensive consideration of all aspects of the shooting training processes,we establish the accident tree model of shooting training risks by using the accident tree and triangular fuzzy number which are the combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis methods to analyze the training risks in the regiment.By solving the minimum cut(diameter)sets of accident tree and analyzing the structure importance of basic events in the risk accident tree and also using the triangular fuzzy accident tree to analyze the fuzzy importance of these basic events,we finally calculate the ranking of these factors which affect the mass shooting training risks in order to provide references to put forward measures and suggestions to prevent the risks of shooting training.Finally,taking the ranking of above factors as the basis,combined with the actual situation of shooting training,we propose appropriate measures to prevent shooting risks which ensure a safe and orderly shooting training situation in troops.This paper is helpful to find out the current status of shooting training management and shooting risk factors in the regiment,the methods of shooting risk analysis make the risk analysis results more scientific and credible,which is useful to find the hidden dangers in shooting training processes and effectively reduce the risks of shooting training.At the same time,it can give some references for safety management of shooting training in other similar troops.