Research On The Influence Of Pilots Behavior And Psychological Factors On Aviation Safety

In order to comprehensively analyze the causes and consequences of aviation accidents caused by pilots’ errors and put forward preventive and control measures,the Bow-tie model is introduced to systematically and perfectly analyze the pilots’ unsafe behavior factors.The fault tree and event tree of aviation accident are combined to evaluate the aviation safety quantitatively.The human factor analysis model and classification system(HFACS)to cause the aviation accident risk factors identification analysis and statistical analysis of the civil aircraft accident/incident signs handbook of statistics and analysis of the 100 aviation accidents from 2009 to 2011,using association rules analysis method to determine the HFACS model correlation between the underlying factors.To establish a complete analysis of the aviation accidents symptom Bow-tie model determining the barrier of stop-loss measures for aviation accidents.Fuzzy theory and expert evaluation method are used to obtain the fuzzy possible value of the right control measure of the left hazard source and the Bow-tie model of the Bow-tie model.Using the mean area measurement method,the fuzzy probability value is converted to the real failure probability value.The logic relationship between the factors in GeNIe software was analyzed and the fault diagnosis was performed.Based on the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and the triangular fuzzy number,the weight coefficient and the consequence level of the air accident consequence are determined,and the total value of the result of aviation accident is obtained by matrix multiplication.Taking an aviation accident as an example,the risk factors are fully identified and the probability and risk value of each consequence event are quantified.The practical application results show that the application of triangular fuzzy number and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process can be used to evaluate the relative risk of pilot error.According to the risk assessment results,the risk management method of the system can be put forward.