Reliability Analysis Of Distribution System Based On Big Data Technology

Distribution system,directly connected to the users as the end of the whole power system,has a very important impact on the reliability of the users' power supply.With the increasing demand for the quality and reliability of the power supply,the reliability research of distribution system has received more and more attention.However,in the face of the ever-expanding distribution system and the increasing uncertain factors,the limitations of traditional analysis methods are becoming more and more obvious.In this era of information explosion,massive data is the world's “new oil”.A holistic approach based on big data to the inherent mechanisms of complex system will provide a new way to study the reliability of distribution system.This paper presents a set of reliability prediction and evaluation method for distribution system based on big data technology.Firstly,big data in distribution and consumption systems will be collected,cleaned and filtered into a decision table.Secondly,the relevant factors of the reliability of distribution system,extracted from the massive data using the correlation analysis based on integration of information entropy in rough sets theory,will be the input of the following forecasting model.Thirdly,with the improved neural network method based on genetic algorithm training on the historical data,a forecasting model will be built to predict the reliability of distribution system in the future period.At last,according to the above process,the paper takes the data of Beijing as an example.The results showed that the method has the advantages of high prediction accuracy,easy operation and practical engineering value.Based on the method proposed in this paper,the reliability of distribution system in Hubei Province is analyzed,and the prediction result of the test year is quite accurate,which further proves the validity of the method.Then,on the basis of the forecasting model,the sensitivity analysis is carried out to quarry the factors that have great influence on the reliability of distribution system in Hubei Province,so as to provide a reference on the reliability and cost analysis of Hubei Province's distribution system for State Grid Corporation.In the end,two proposals are put forward to State Grid Hubei Electric Power Company,including the integration management of big data in distribution and consumption systems and the introduction of the operational reliability analysis on distribution system.