Study On The Influence Of Lanzhou-hezuo Railway On The Economic Development Of Regions Along The Line

The Medium and Long-Term Railway Network Plan was officially announced by the National Development and Reform Commission in 2016,which layouts the construction of medium and long-term railway network in China.By the plan,there would be more than150,000 km railway operating tracks by 2020 and over 40,000 km high speed railway by 2030,strengthening the "eight east-west and eight north-south" high-speed rail network.Meanwhile,the "13th Five-Year Plan for Railway Development in Gansu Province" clearly states that there will be a main railway structure with "one heart,one axis,two networks,three circles and nine channels" by 2020 in the province.Hence,the railway network could be connected with all directions,its layout could be more reasonable,and the internal and external railway network could be intercommunicated finally.Lanzhou-Hezuo Railway project is planned and constructed with this background.Its completion would be the breakthrough of railway history in Linxia and Gannan State.The construction and operation of the Lanzhou-Hezuo Railway will actively promote the economic development of Gansu province,perfect the transportation structure and system in the relevant regions,enhance the passenger and cargo transportation capacity,and even encourage the regional tourism industry.Firstly,based on the existing research results and theories both domestic and abroad,this research starts with the relationship between transportation and socio-economic development.According to the data from China Statistical Yearbook,SPSS statistical software is used to analyzing the correlation between transportation infrastructure invest,railway passenger and freight transport volume,and gross national product(GNP),which proves there is strong positive correlation between them.From the status of the economy,resources,industry,agriculture and transportation,the factors are studied that affect the economic development of the Lanzhou-Hezuo Railway.Thus,its influence mechanism on the economic development of the region along the route is inferred,beneficial of further analysis of regional economic development.Secondly,by summarizing existing research methods of similar economic issues domestic and abroad,the advantages and disadvantages of existing qualitative and quantitative methods are analyzed and compared,and their applicable scope or conditions are fixed.Furthermore,the appropriate models’ improvements are made to be more suitable for solving the regional economic influence study in this paper.In addition,the improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is used to weight the direct and indirect economic influencing factors of the regional economic development of Lanzhou-Hezuo Railway,and its main economic influence factors are obtained.Finally,according with the above main direct economic impact factors,statistics on theregional economic characteristics and economic data along the Lanzhou-Hezuo Railway are made using “with or without comparison” analysis method,and the specific influencing factors are established through regression analysis.Besides,the fitting model of regional GDP growth is built.Then the gray Markov prediction model,production and sales balance method,and gravity model are used to predict the annual trend traffic volume of Gansu Province before the opening of Lanzhou-Hezuo Railway,and the increase of traffic volume in the research year after its opening.Ultimately,with "no comparison" method,the Lanzhou-Hezuo Railway’s contribution to the economic development of the Gansu region is measured.For indirect factors that cannot be quantified,the analogy is used for specific analysis.