Research On Decision-Making Problem Of Expressway Franchising In "PPP+ EPC" Mode

With the development of social economy,China is expected to achieve the opening of the expressway between the provincial capitals in 2020.Because the "PPP + EPC" model has the advantages of integrating resources and financing,it can effectively improve the efficiency and quality of the project,also it is the country in the construction of the project vigorously promote.Determining a reasonable franchise period is extremely important for the development of a concession agreement.On the one hand,the franchise period is too long to harm the interests of the public sector.On the other hand,the franchise period is too short and the private sector will choose to set a higher charging mechanism in order to recycle its investment.So that the franchise period is unreasonable,leading to the project participants can not get the expected benefits,therefore,a reasonable franchise period on the "PPP + EPC" project is essential to the successful operation.In this paper,the "PPP + EPC" expressway project is taken as the object of study,and the real option is combined with the "three rounds of cake" game model to establish the decision model of expressway franchise in "PPP + EPC" mode.The decision-making process of this paper is divided into two steps.Firstly,based on the real option,the optimal investment timing model of the government and the private sector is constructed,and the feasibility interval of the franchise period is obtained.Then,according to the different strategic behaviors between the government departments and the private sector under the complete information,the equilibrium solution of the franchise period is obtained based on the "three rounds of cake" game model.Finally,a simple example evolution is carried out to verify and analyze the decision model of expressway franchise in "PPP + EPC" mode.The model can reasonably determine the franchise period and protect the reasonable interests of the government and the private sector.In addition,it broadens the application scope of real option in "PPP + EPC" expressway mode and provides effective theoretical basis for government public sector and private sector to make decision-making in franchise period.