Research On Influencing Factors And Forecasting Models Of Equipment Price In Power Grid Project

In order to estimate and analyze the cost of the project reasonably,the enterprise often needs to publish the guide price according to the past equipment price.However the unreasonable guide price is an important reason for the high-saving cost.In the other hands,the market price of equipment is affected by a variety of factors,change speed and direction are different as well.Therefore,it’s urgent to grasp the equipment price trends correctly,strengthen the price analysis and forecasting work,so as to reasonably estimate the cost of power construction project.Firstly,this paper described the research on the influencing factors and the forecasting model of engineering equipment price,combined with the specific characteristics of power grid equipment prices,from three aspects of production cost,macroeconomics and policy,we multi-dimensional mined factors influencing the prices.Secondly,based on the feature of forecasting techniques,two kinds of price forecasting model were constructed,including forecasting model base on history data and forecasting model based on influencing factors.Then,according to the price characteristics of the grid equipment,the two-step optimized selection process of the price forecasting model was designed.The first step was the primary selection of price forecasting techniques based on the nature of price fluctuations.The second step put forward the evaluation index system of model prediction effect,constructed the comprehensive evaluation model based on projection pursuit method,to select the top prediction model.In addition,the model selection suggestion was put forward in the end.For one thing,this paper not only comprehensively and systematically analyzed the influencing factors of the grid equipment price,and this factors how to affect the price of equipment.It is significance to accurately grasp the price trend of grid equipment,reasonably control the cost of the project,and reduce the risk of investment in the grid project.For another,the paper proposed the price forecasting model and selection method,which breaks the existing research situation,deepens the material price fluctuation mechanism,especially realizes the control of the equipment cost and the total cost of the grid project.