Study On Risk Prevention And Control Of Project Material Procurement Under Abnormal Weather Conditions

We often ignore the risk caused by non-disaster abnormal weather in engineering projects because it is difficult to predict accurately,but the impact on engineering projects is often continuous and cannot be underestimated.Compared with the non-disaster abnormal weather,disaster weather unpredictablehas the nature of,unavoidable and insurmountable.The disaster weather will contribute to a direct and serious result,but for it is irresistible,we can mitigate risk through contract and the corresponding law,also we can give a compensation.on the contrary,all the loss caused by the non-disaster abnormal weather must be undertake by the construction side.The impact brought to the engineering projects by the non-disaster abnormal weather change the original construction organization design,the construction material demands will change accordingly.Therefore,if purchasing without considering the non-disaster abnormal weather will lead to the unnecessary cost.The weather forecast can only make a prediction of the weather condition in the latest one week,however,purchasing plan must be made before a long time,so we can’t avoid the disaster weather risk by the weather forecast.This paper analyzes the history weather data,build the weather model,thus making a relative accurate weather predicting,controlling the disaster weather risk in purchasing to some extent.First,through studing the essays domestic and overseas,this paper analyzes the theoretical significance and application value about disaster weather risk prevention and control,also providing the corresponding theory foundation verify the feasibility and innovation.Besides,through analyzing the daily maximum temperature data during 1981 and2015,this paper builds a trigonometric function model,uses the Eviews to do parameter estimation.The model has a very good fitting effect on historical data.And we use this model in the high temperature forecast in 2016,fit the residual distribution by using Monte Carlo Method,and revise the predicting result,finally we achieve a forecast of the average daily maximum temperature for a range with ideal results.On the other hand,through the statistics of rainfall in 1981-2015,this paper calculates the number of rain days for three consecutive days or more per month,introduces continuous rain index to quantify the degree of impact.This paper also builds a K-order autoregressive model to forecast the intensity of continuous rain for 12 months in 2016,and finally achieve satisfactory results.At last,through analyzing the work progress in the engineering projects,identify processes affected by abnormal weather risk,analyze the influence degree of weather risk on each process.This paper clarifies the management organization of abnormal weather risk in purchasing and proposes the abnormal weather risk control.Through the analysis of the material planning management process,we get the key points of abnormal weather risk control,and the material planning management process is redesigned to achieve the purpose of controlling abnormal weather risk in purchasing.Finally this paper use the case analysis to prove the abnormal weather risk control effectiveness in procurement based on weather forecast.