| In 2017,China's high-speed railway business mileage has reached 25 thousand kilometers,ranking first in the world,"four vertical and four horizontal" high-speed rail network has basically formed.With the rapid development of high-speed railway,China's economic development has entered the "high-speed rail era".At present,most of China's high-speed rail lines are in a state of loss,and some of them are even shut down.High standard railway investment is even more difficult to optimistic about its benefits.However,in this large social and economic system,the high speed rail,as a basic project,has a certain advance and social benefits,and its financial loss is not a decisive factor in evaluating the economic benefit of the high speed rail.We should pay more attention to its promotion to the regional economic development.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the impact of high speed railway on the development of regional economy and to calculate the economic efficiency of the high speed rail,which will provide a reliable reference for the evaluation of the high speed railway construction project.The thesis summarizes the research ideas of domestic and foreign scholars by analyzing domestic and foreign related literature research.Then,from the aspects of regional transportation,regional economic growth,industrial structure and employment structure,the impact mechanism of high-speed railway on regional economic development was studied.Based on this,taking the Beijing-Tianjin intercity as an example,a detailed analysis was made of regional transportation,regional economic growth,and other aspects.The results show that:Beijing-Tianjin Intercity can solve the problem of insufficient regional transportation capacity,employment,and other issues.Separation of railway passenger and cargo,improvement of regional accessibility,promotion of optimal adjustment of the economic structure of the Beijing-Tianjin region,and creation of tens of thousands of jobs.In this paper,the system dynamics model of high speed railway and regional economic development is constructed by selecting the indexes of regional output value,three industrial output value,high speed railway passenger turnover,railway freight turnover,and three industrial fixed assets investment.Through the case analysis of Beijing and Tianjin Intercity,this paper summarizes the regional economic total and the development trend of the three industrial output value before and after the Beijing Tianjin inter city construction,and calculates the economic benefits brought by the construction and operation of Beijing and Tianjin for the regional economy,and then determines the quantitative impact of Beijing Tianjin inter city on the development of regional economic development.The results show that the construction and operation of Beijing and Tianjin have promoted the accessibility of Beijing by 22.42%,and the change rate of Tianjin accessibility increased by 25.05%;the expansion of investment has promoted the development of the two cities' regional economy,especially the development of the third industry.In 2016,the three industrial structure of Beijing and Tianjin was about 1:45:54,forming a "321" industrial structure.The results of the system dynamics model analysis show that the absolute error of the simulated value and the true value is kept within 5%,and the results of the model calculation are reliable.The result of the model calculation shows that Beijing and Tianjin Intercity from opening to 2015,Beijing and Tianjin Intercity created 138 billion 282 million yuan of indirect economic benefit for economic development along the line,and the cumulative contribution rate of GDP in Beijing and Tianjin areas in 2015 was 2.69%.The inter city of Beijing and Tianjin has the most significant impact on the third industry in the region,the second industry is the second,the first industry has the least influence.Finally,the paper draws the conclusion and puts forward some pertinent countermeasures and suggestions. |
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