Study On The Prediction Of Urban Parking Supply Based On The Selection Of Vehicle Preserving And Traveling Modes

With the gradual upgrading of the demand for the rapid growth of the motor vehicle and the imbalance between the supply and demand of parking facilities in China,urban parking difficulties have become an important factor affecting residents’ travel.According to statistics,by the end of 2016,the number of motor vehicles in China exceeded 290 million,and the number of parking berths was as high as 58 million.The parking problem not only affected urban traffic,but also aggravated residents’ travel inconvenience.How to alleviate the problem of urban parking is crucial to the development of urban transport in China.Reasonable forecasting of future parking supplies not only can effectively solve urban parking problems,but also can alleviate urban traffic congestion to some extent,and may even reduce the incidence of traffic accidents.This paper analyzes the relationship between parking supply and parking demand,static and dynamic traffic,and explores the fundamental causes of the imbalance of parking supply and demand in cities.Based on this,it establishes a basic parking supply forecasting model based on vehicle ownership and a method based on travel mode.The selected parking supply forecasting model was used,and the case analysis of Chongqing Jiangbeizu central business district was used to verify the rationality and applicability of this model.The specific research contents are as follows:(1)Parking supply and demand analysis.The classification and characteristics of parking demand and parking supply are briefly introduced,the relationship between parking supply and parking demand,and static and dynamic traffic are sorted out.The balance between parking supply and demand is studied,and parking demand is forecasted from the perspective of parking supply.Then,according to the classification of parking supply,the basic reasons that influence the imbalance of urban parking supply and demand are discovered: the selection of vehicle ownership and travel mode provides theoretical support for the following model construction.(2)Build a basic parking supply forecasting model.The basic parking supply is mainly affected by the amount of vehicle ownership.In other words,the forecasted basic parking supply is equivalent to the forecasted vehicle inventory.Therefore,first of all,we review and summarize the commonly used methods for predicting vehicle ownership in the past,their respective applicability,advantages and disadvantages,and analyze the reasons for the increase in vehicle ownership from policies,socio-economic and road traffic systems.By analyzing the development law of car ownership in Beijing,Shanghai,and Chongqing,the trend epitaxy method is used to fit the curve,and finally a polynomial prediction model with a high degree of fit is determined as a basic model for predicting vehicle ownership,and then a location is introduced.The reduction factor establishes a basic parking supply forecast model based on vehicle ownership.(3)Build a parking supply forecasting model.Travel parking supply is affected by many factors and it is an uncertain factor.From the perspective of the balance of road traffic system,this paper comprehensively considers the impact of trip parking supply,mode of transportation mode trip cost,choice of trip mode,and the state of urban traffic operation,and establishes a comprehensive predictive model of trip parking supply based on the choice of trip mode.This article focuses on the analysis of the various parametric models of travel costs for each mode of transport,and uses Jiangbeizui survey data to verify and analyze the various parametric models,demonstrating that all parametric models are feasible.The comprehensive travel parking supply forecasting model is a dynamic cycle forecasting model,and through continuous adjustment of the parking supply,the optimal travel parking supply in the urban traffic balance operation status is obtained.(4)verification of the example.According to the example of Jiangbeizui Central Business District’s parking supply forecast,the status quo of parking in Jiangbei mouth and the existing problems are analyzed firstly;the relevant data obtained from the survey and the basic parking supply forecasting model and the parking supply forecast model are used to predict Jiangbei The total parking supply of the mouth;By comparing the actual parking needs of Jiangbeizui with the actual parking berths and the predicted values of the model,the predicted value of the model is closer to the actual demand.It can be seen that the constructed model has a certain degree of Rationality and feasibility.