Study On Demand And Supply Forecast Model And Application In Construction Parking Space Of Central Business District

With the increase of motor vehicle numbers, the contradiction between supply and demand of parking space and vehicle is becoming more and more serious. It is being difficult to solve parking problem after traffic congestion. As an important part of transport, standard, orderly and reasonable parking arrangement is not only the basement of convenience and unobstructed driving, but also a key factor of impacting the increase of motor vehicle numbers and driving on the road. It’s also a main link to lead spatial structure and promote the level of citizen production and life. Difficult and confused parking is not only impact on the regular road traffic room and order, but also bring a hidden danger to traffic safety, and it negative effect on regional social economic prosperity and development of the key public areas like central business district(CBD), financial district and so on.Data suggest that each building parking only occupied for more than half of the total city parking spaces in the whole city with the background of the rapid growth of motor vehicles. In recent years, Kunming is in a period of rapid economic growth. The value of commercial land has been demanded to expand. CBD as the city economic core area will inevitably become an important attraction of parking. So the problem of parking planning about the construction of CBD in the core area of the city has become the necessary and urgent key to solve.Although we had done a lot of research about the parking demand forecast in many large and medium-sized city, due to the different regions and development of city economy and forms, it leads to many other of parking demand forecast models, and there are large differences in the calculation method. Basing on the analysis and comparison the parking demand forecast model currently, this paper first analyses the characteristics of parking that construction of CBD. Combined with this kind of characteristics, recommending the parking generation rate model as the theoretical basis, modifying the parameters of the model through the peak hour average parking turnover rate and calculated vehicle growth rate. The paper combines the parking demand model modification with the capacity of road network, the local population density and discusses the balance of supply and demand, after the traffic location theory analysis propose the parking supply policy. At last, take Shuncheng CBD of Kunming for instance, make the model modified apply to calculate the number of parking spaces, compared with the actual situation. Finally, to evaluate the accuracy and effectiveness of the model.