| With the booming economy,China’s urbanization has developed rapidly,and a lot of land and resources have been developed and used.Because there is unreasonable planning of land and resources,which affects the survival and development of human beings,causing damage to the ecological environment and serious soil erosion,this has delayed the pace of national economic development to a certain extent.With the advancement of urbanization,industrial pollution generated in cities has become increasingly serious.Among them,industrial wastewater is one of the main sources of industrial pollution.At the same time,the uneven development of various regions in China,the unreasonable structure,and the uneven economic and environmental quality,these problems are not allowed.Avoidance is a hindrance to high-quality economic growth in China.The middle reaches of the Yangtze River is a city group with the largest land area in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.It is also an important area for implementing the strategy of promoting the rise of the central region.It plays an extremely nuclear leading and radiating role in regional economic development.Therefore,discussing the relationship between the economic development and industrial wastewater discharge of urban agglomerations in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River from different perspectives and scales has important decision-making practical value for sustainable regional economic development.In this context,this article builds a research framework of "theoretical analysis-empirical research-countermeasure analysis" based on research methods such as exploratory space analysis of spatial metrology,gravity center migration model,and structural emission reduction model.First,sort out the existing relevant literature,analyze the conclusions and deficiencies of existing articles,summarize the theoretical background of the article,and establish a theoretical basis for subsequent research in this article.Second,discuss the relationship between industrial wastewater discharge and economic growth in the four regions of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River.Curve analysis of the evolution of industrial wastewater discharge with economic growth.Then,based on the exploratory space analysis(ESDA)method and the center of gravity migration model,the spatial and temporal pattern of industrial wastewater discharge and its center of gravity migration trajectory in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River from 2006 to 2017 were studied.The LMDI decomposition analysis model explains the underlying cause of the evolutionary trajectory,and then uses the high-precision original gray prediction model to predict the industrial wastewater discharge trend in the study area from 2018 to 2025.Based on the results,the carbon emission effect calculation formula adjusted with the economic structure is combined with the actual conditions of the four regions.Economic development and industrial wastewater discharge,analysis of the impact of regional economic structural adjustment on the total emission reduction and discharge intensity of industrial wastewater,using scenario analysis to study the impact of regional economic structure changes on industrial wastewater discharge changes by setting up different scenarios;finally Before synthesis Three-part empirical research findings,put forward policy recommendations from different aspects.The main conclusions of the paper include:(1)Judging from the EKC fitting results of industrial wastewater discharge and per capita GDP in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River,the Hubei region presents an inverted U-shaped curve,which is the classic EKC curve;while the fitted curve in Hunan region shows an inverse N There are two turning points;Jiangxi is the only region in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River where industrial wastewater grows with economic growth;Anhui is an anti-N curve,respectively in 2007-The turning point was reached around 2008 and 2016-2017.(2)From 2006 to 2017,the overall industrial wastewater discharge in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River showed a downward trend,and there were obvious spatial differentiation characteristics,showing the evolution from high to low in the southwest and low to high in the Middle East;there is no obvious space in the overall space.Agglomeration features,but there are obvious agglomeration features in the local space,and the low-height agglomeration is the main state.From 2006 to 2017,the center of gravity of industrial wastewater discharge in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River mainly moved in the region of 114.38 ° E to 114.95 ° E in the east and 29.18 ° N to 29.34 ° N in north latitude,and moved generally to the northeast,with a total distance of 107.88 km.The center of gravity of the total industrial output value of the urban agglomeration generally moves to the northwest,with a total distance of 94.39 km.The center of gravity of the other years except 2011 and 2012 has a small change in the distance of the center of gravity.The center of gravity of industrial wastewater discharge is gradually approaching the geometric center and the moving speed is significantly higher than the moving speed of the center of gravity of industrial output value.(3)In terms of driving factors,the technological upgrading effect is the main driving factor that restrains the increase of industrial wastewater;while industrial economic growth is the main driving force for the increase of industrial wastewater discharge,but this impact far exceeds the impact of the large-scale population effect;industrial structure There are significant spatial differences in the effects of the effects on industrial wastewater discharge.(4)According to the original gray prediction model,it is found that the discharge of industrial waste water will show a downward trend in the next 8 years,and it will drop to 1.737 billion tons in 2025.Overall,the discharge of industrial waste water in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River will show a downward trend year by year.From a regional perspective,Hunan The regional economic and industrial share ranks first in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River urban agglomeration,and the industrial share in Jiangxi has risen rapidly.During the study period,the regional economic structure changes in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and the reduction of industrial wastewater were beneficial,but the effect of reducing emissions was not very obvious;As a whole,changes in the regional economic structure of urban agglomerations in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River can reduce the intensity of industrial wastewater discharge.From a regional perspective,changes in the economic proportion of Hunan and Jiangxi regions have a greater impact on the reduction of industrial wastewater.From the scenario analysis,it can be seen that the increase of the economic proportion of Hunan can reduce the intensity of industrial wastewater discharge in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. |
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