Research On Oil Price Fluctuation Law And Its Influencing Factors Based On Coupling Network

Crude oil,as the "blood" of modern industrial production,is an important strategic material for the economies of countries around the world.Since the beginning of the new century,the complex and volatile international situation has exacerbated the uncertainty of the operation of the crude oil market.International crude oil prices have fluctuated frequently under the combined action of a variety of risk factors,especially crude oil stocks and the US dollar index have contributed to the short-term ups and downs in international oil prices.The short-term fluctuations of crude oil prices,crude oil stocks and the US dollar index,these three changes have inherent long-term complexity,it is usually difficult to directly analyze from the time series.From the perspective of a complex network,the time series relationship is mapped into the network.By analyzing the geometric properties and basic measurements of the network,the evolutionary dynamic mechanism and laws of the time series can be clearly and conveniently obtained to analyze the co-movement of crude oil price short-term fluctuations,crude oil stocks and the US dollar index.In this paper,the multiple structural breakpoint method is used to detect that there are five breakpoints in the complex crude oil price fluctuation time series,and it is divided into six different fluctuation periods according to the different levels of crude oil price fluctuation after the breakpoint regression.At the same time,combined with the history of crude oil price fluctuations,the causes of breakpoints at various times are explained.The ensemble empirical mode decomposition method is used to decompose the high-frequency oil price time series representing the short-term fluctuation trend of crude oil prices from the original international crude oil prices.During six different oil price fluctuation periods,a time series threshold network model of the co-movement of high-frequency oil prices,crude oil stocks and the US dollar index was established.After selecting an appropriate threshold,through the analysis of network indicators such as node strength,degree distribution,clustering coefficient,betweenness centrality,and shortest path distance,the key mode of the threshold network,the conversion period between modes and the potential time evolution mechanism.The results show that the conversion between the co-movement modes of high-frequency oil prices,stocks and the US dollar index is very frequent.The co-movement threshold network has different fluctuation characteristics during different oil price fluctuation periods.The key co-movement modes and conversion intermediaries provide a convenient method for finding important time points of the fluctuations in the international crude oil market.This study indicates that it is necessary to pay attention to changes in crude oil stocks and the US dollar index at the same time when studying the short-term fluctuations of crude oil.Especially in the period of severe oil price fluctuations,the short-term fluctuations of crude oil prices are more sensitive to changes in the US dollar index.The threshold co-movement network of high-frequency oil prices,crude oil stocks and the US dollar index is closer to the "small world network".It is found that the key nodes,conversion cycles and conversion intermediary modes of the network are different during different oil price fluctuation periods.Market decision makers should grasp the dominant factors affecting their fluctuations according to the fluctuation characteristics of oil prices in different periods and adjust strategies appropriately to regulate the operation of the crude oil market in different periods.This paper provides a new idea for studying the co-movement of international crude oil prices and its influencing factors,and also provides some reference for the linkage relationship between multivariate time series.