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The Asymmetric Impact Studies Of Crude Oil Price Fluctuation On China’s Output

Posted on:2019-11-05Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:M Q WuFull Text:PDF
GTID:2371330545980916Subject:Western economics
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The global economy and politics are constantly changing and developing.For a long time,resource disputes,the influence of major powers,and regional armed conflicts have all affected the flow of capital and economic development in the entire world.At the same time as the overall economic development of the society,industrial enterprises need a large amount of energy and resources to support them.The increase in residents’ demands for quality of life also increases the demand for natural gas,oil and other fossil fuels.As one of the BRIC countries,China is also the world’s largest developing country and the most populous country.In the process of industrialization and urbanization,China’s domestic demand for various energy sources and resources has increased substantially.The increase in demand for oil among these countries has been exceptionally outstanding.China implemented reform and opening up in 1978.In the domestic environment with rapid economic development,China finally became a net importer of crude oil in 1993.However,due to limited domestic energy supply growth,a large number of consumer demand gaps can only be relied on to import crude oil from other sources to make up for it,which has made it one of the important buyers in the global energy market after the US and Japan.Time entered the 21 st century,according to statistics,China’s net imports of crude oil in 2007 reached a new record,reaching 183.48 million tons.In 2009,China’s crude oil consumption was 388.11 million tons,net oil imports were 198.62 million tons,and China’s crude oil import dependency was 53.6%.In the world crude oil consumption statistics in 2016,China ranked second in the world with 578.7 million tons of consumption,accounting for 13.1% of the total global crude oil consumption.Statistics show that in 2016,China’s foreign dependence on crude oil consumption demand has risen again and it has exceeded the 60% alert level.The International Energy Agency predicts that with the current speed of economic development and energy growth rate,by 2035,China’s oil dependence may exceed 80%.The research content of this paper is the general logic analysis step of the issue of how the exogenous shock of oil price fluctuation will affect the national output.First of all,from a global perspective to explain the background of the era and the current energy situation in China to find and raise issues,that is,China’s crude oil resources are scarce and the demand is large;secondly,by sorting out domestic and international research,an exogenous shock based on oil price fluctuations will result in national output.The theory related to the effects of asymmetric effects is to select scientifically reasonable and feasible economic variables: the spot price of Brent in the North Sea,the GDP of GDP,the supply of money M2,the fixed deposit interest rate R for one-year residents and the government expenditure G,and Through descriptive methods such as flowcharts and charts,we intuitively describe how international oil price fluctuations affect our country’s output.Third,we use the STR model as a nonlinear model to directly use the Brent oil price as a conversion variable in order to accurately reveal the international crude oil price.The dynamic impact of volatility on China’s output and the dynamic transition paths and trends of such mechanisms.The empirical results show that whether the current price of oil rises or falls,the impact on output is absolutely positive.This may be due to the fact that the impact of energy prices,such as oil prices,will eventually have an impact on output through price channels,employment,consumption,and investment.In the short term,China’s economy will continue to maintain its previous growth trend.The effect of the fluctuation of oil price in the previous period on the output is more complex and it is an asymmetric effect,which is consistent with the transmission effect in economics.However,the rise and fall of oil prices in the previous period have asymmetric effects on national output.Asymmetric methods are more credible for the study of this issue.The study of this paper also draws the corresponding conclusion: There is indeed an asymmetric relationship between the national output of China and the fluctuation of international crude oil prices.Finally,a series of targeted crude oil security strategies are proposed for the current energy environment and energy situation in China.Compared with previous research literature,the author believes that the first innovation point in this paper is data.The selected data period is the quarterly data of 1997-2017.This period includes both the time period before the domestic oil price reform and the United States.The period when the financial crisis caused the decline of China’s economic growth also included a new period in which China entered the new normal.The scope of data coverage is more comprehensive,making the research results more persuasive;the second is the model selection,domestic oil price fluctuations affect output.There are many papers on the subject,and there are also many researches on asymmetric effects.However,most papers are based on error correction or vector autoregressive models.Few scholars use nonlinear smooth transition models to characterize international oil price fluctuations and output.The asymmetric effect between.The author uses the STR model and hopes to explain the impact mechanism of oil price fluctuations on output and the dynamic path and change trend of the conversion mechanism.
Keywords/Search Tags:Crude oil price, GDP, STR model, Asymmetric effect
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