Integrity Evaluation And Failure Risk Prediction Of Drilling Contractors’ Emergency Response Plan

In the process of land oil & gas drilling activities,it is inevitably faced with high reservoir pressure,hydrogen sulfide leakage,fire,and difficulty of personnel rescue.Emergency Response Plan(ERP),as an important means of protection in modern safety management system of corporations,could reduce probability and severity of incident,avoid the potential disaster.Qualitative evaluation usually leads to a very interminable and complicate outcome,but quantitative evaluation could make the result much accurate and clear to read.Taking the Saudi Arabia drilling contractor’s emergency response plan example as the research object,performs quantitative and qualitative evaluations,by utilizing popular methods such as Fault Tree(FTA),Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP),Bayesian Network(BN).The contents are as follows:(1)Discusses weakness and unsatisfactory of Saudi Aramco drilling contractors’ ERP;(2)Analyzes the failure mode and basic events of the drilling contractor’s ERP systematically with the Fault Tree method;(3)Transforms basic events of the Fault Tree model into the comprehensive AHP criteria set.Formulates first & second levels criteria of AHP.Collect evaluation result by Delphi Technique.Calculates AHP evaluation matrix and confirms the consistency of it.Finally,the weight values of each level criterion are obtained;(4)Establishes an ERP evaluation checklist,and expands the second levels of AHP criteria’s to details.Taking one ERP of the Saudi Aramco drilling contractors as the evaluation case,obtains the evaluation results.The results are expressed in the way of rose map;(5)Transforms Fault Tree model to Bayesian Network model,inputs example ERP evaluation result into BN system,performs three kinds of probability analysis of ERP failure,and finds out probability of ERP example failure and high potential nodes.