Research On G Company’s Demand Forecast And Production Plan

For an enterprise,regardless of whether it belongs to any industry,traditional manufacturing,high-tech industry,new service industry,on-time order delivery are the most important elements that companies need to guarantee first,and are a necessary condition for the survival of an enterprise.The prerequisite for gaining competitive advantage in fierce market competition is also one of the most important goals of supply chain management performance.In different industries,the sales volume of some products has obvious seasonal characteristics,and seasonal fluctuations are an extremely common phenomenon.Seasonal fluctuations in product demand have brought more challenges to supply chain management,which has seriously affected the company’s supply level and service level,resulting in tremendous impact on order delivery and reduced.In order to reduce the impact of seasonal commodity demand volatility and uncertainty on product supply,companies in the seasonal commodity supply chain must develop a reasonable supply and demand management strategy from a strategic perspective,through internal and external cooperation To cope with the surge in orders and product demand in the peak season,improve the supply level of enterprises;as far as possible upstream and downstream enterprises in the supply chain to achieve resource and information sharing,to achieve the optimization of the performance of the supply chain.This article takes the company’s water toy series products as the research object,uses scientific methods such as literature analysis,Pareto analysis,and exponential smoothing,combined with the demand forecasting theory in the supply chain environment,to the seasonal supply of commodity supply chains.Explore management optimization methods and improve the order delivery level of enterprises by applying modern scientific management theories including demand forecasting models and inventory management.The first part mainly introduces the demand forecasting and inventory management of seasonal products in different industries,and provides a theoretical basis for the analysis of the order delay problem of G company;the second part first introduces the basic situation of G company,based on the monthly Analysis of sales data;the third part finds out the reasons for the seasonal fluctuations of G company ’s water toy sales and the delay of orders;the fourth part is mainly to propose an overall strategy of combining push and pull,change the previous method of producing in full order It is suitable for G company’s demand forecasting model and determination of safety stock quantity to meet the on-time delivery of orders;the fifth part verifies the proposed strategy and lists the measures to ensure the smooth progress of the production plan.In this paper,through the study of the seasonal volatility of G company’s product demand and the use of demand forecasting theory in the supply chain environment,it proposes countermeasures to deal with the surge in demand during the peak season,which has a certain enlightening effect on other manufacturing companies,traders and distributors in the industry At the same time,it has certain reference significance for industries with the same seasonal fluctuation products.Therefore,the research of this topic has certain practical guiding significance.