Research On Safety Evaluation Of Urban Rail Transit Operation Based On Structural Equation

With the rapid development of China's economy,traffic congestion has become a prominent problem faced by every city.Urban rail transit is developing rapidly in every big city of China.Urban rail transit passenger flow,speed,convenient for citizens to travel.At the same time,the operation accidents and safety problems of urban rail transit have aroused great attention of the society.However,the cause of the accident is always analyzed after the accident occurs.This passive mode of "post-analysis reflection" can no longer meet the traffic needs of today's society.Only before the accident occurs,the potential risk should be scientifically and reasonably judged and evaluated in a timely manner,and corresponding preventive measures should be taken as soon as possible.The aim of reducing accidents can be achieved through the safety management method of "prevention in advance".Based on the principle of prevention first,the research work of this article includes the following two aspects:(1)According to the characteristics of accidents,accident classification standards and accident classification,combined with the analysis results of domestic urban rail transit operation accidents,this paper summarizes the occurrence rules of accidents,so as to provide a basis for urban rail transit operation managers to make final decisions.(2)Summarize the four aspects of "person","management","machine" and "circle" that affect the safe operation of urban rail transit.Based on this,starting from the five aspects of passenger factors,management factors,facilities and equipment factors,environmental factors and disaster factors,an evaluation index system was constructed,combined with the basic theory of structural equation modeling,and 17 safety operation level evaluations in 5 dimensions were determined.Indicators,using the SEM model to analyze the mutual influence and superimposition effects between indicators and dimensions,using AMOS software to analyze the impact of secondary indicators on the overall target,respectively,environmental factors,equipment factors,management factors,Disaster factors and passenger factors,and use model-related path coefficients to determine the degree of influence of various indicators on operational safety.(3)The improved system dynamics method is applied to the simulation of urban rail transit operation safety factors.The flow chart is constructed by Vensim software and the weight of each influencing sub-factor is simulated by establishing a system dynamics equation,thereby effectively improving the system evaluation Reliability and rationality.Based on the analysis of urban rail transit in Chongqing,combined with the construction of an improved system dynamics model,it is concluded that this rail transit operation is very safe,and corresponding improvements are proposed based on various influencing factors.