Study On Prediction And Control Method Of Urban Rail System Operation Risk Propagation Based On Improved SIR Model

Urban rail transit is one of the most sustainable transportation modes,which plays an important role in promoting economic development,facilitating people's life and ensuring social security and stability.Urban rail transit system equipment is generally arranged in semi closed space such as underground or viaduct.The operation environment of the system is highly sealed,and the density of equipment and personnel is high.In case of system failure or emergency,local failure may spread to the whole system quickly.Improper judgment and disposal will cause huge personal and property losses,which puts forward very high requirements for the safe operation of Urban Rail Transit.In order to accurately determine the evolution direction of risk propagation in the system,this paper proposes a risk propagation prediction and control method for urban rail transit operation system based on complex network model.The main research contents are as follows:(1)Forming the risk network model construction method of Urban Rail TransitBased on the extensive investigation of urban rail transit system,the urban rail transit system is divided into four layers according to the equipment attributes: mobile equipment layer,facility equipment layer,personnel management layer and external environment layer.Key connection nodes are defined and identified.Taking the risk point as the node and the entity and logical connection between the risk points as the edge,a risk network model construction method of Urban Rail Transit Based on multi-layer community structure is formed.(2)The evolution mechanism of urban rail transit risk propagation based on network model is discussedBased on the risk network model of urban rail transit,the topological characteristics of the network model are analyzed The unfolding algorithm divides the network into 18 typical communities.Combined with the historical accident data,153 kinds of accident subnets are extracted from the main network,and K-shell algorithm is used to separate the subnets.The boundary layer and core layer of the accident are divided.The internal evolution mechanism of risk propagation is analyzed,and the propagation limit of the accident is calculated Wave value.(3)Based on the improved SIR model,the risk propagation path simulation prediction method is proposedOn the basis of summarizing different types of fault propagation laws,the Sir complex network dynamic model is introduced for urban rail transit system,and the algorithm is improved based on the characteristics of passive propagation and physical structure of urban rail transit system,thus forming the simulation and prediction process method of urban rail transit risk propagation.Through in-depth discussion of node fault mode,the node fault is divided into Based on the two types of energy spreading and energy releasing,the start and stop characteristics and mutual transformation mechanism of the two types of faults are analyzed and summarized by using Lotka Volterra cooperative competition model,and finally a simulation and prediction method of risk propagation path is formed.(4)An immune strategy generation algorithm based on random walk of nodes is constructedCombined with the simulation and prediction algorithm of accident propagation path,the risk propagation path under different initial conditions is generated,and the Inc evaluation index of network node propagation ability is compared and verified.By setting random walkers in the community structure,a fast walkthrough search element in the network is realized,and the immune strategy generation algorithm is obtained by combining the Inc evaluation.The immune schemes under different initial conditions are selected to block the risk propagation path and suppress the fault propagation in urban rail transit system.(5)Case studyBased on the structure,function and failure data of the vehicle system and related systems of urban rail transit system,a risk network including 176 points and 208 sides is constructed;the risk propagation path and failure consequence under different starting points are deduced,and the optimal immune strategy under different simulation conditions is generated through the random walk algorithm of nodes.After the establishment of the immune strategy,the risk spread was obviously inhibited,and the consequence of the accident was reduced.