Research On Collision Risk Assessment And Application Based On EVENT Model

With the rapid development of the air transportation industry,the number of flights served by the airport terminal area has also shown rapid growth.With the increase of the flight base,the improvement of airport traffic efficiency has become particularly urgent,but whether it is through the optimization of the runway structure or the regulation of the operation mode To increase operating capacity,safety must be a prerequisite for operation.Therefore,the study of collision risk still has important research value and practical significance in future aviation operations.First,the parallel runway collision risk assessment aspect.In order to confirm the collision risk between two aircraft in parallel approach mode under special situation of yaw,the parallel approach yaw collision risk model was established for the first time by using the Event model and the probability theory.The yaw was equivalent to the deflection of the longitudinal axis of the model at a certain angle.The transformation of the model's collision box was analyzed,the variation law of the extended collision box section with time t and yaw angle is obtained.In the meantime,the collision probability ratio R was introduced,which was defined as the ratio of the volume of the transformed collision box to the volume of the original model collision box.Taking the parallel approach yaw of the runway outside Beijing Capital Airport as an example,the calculation results showed that when the aircraft size and runway interval are given,the larger the yaw angle in the range of [0,? /2],the greater the risk of the collision.When the yaw angle of the aircraft exceeded 61°,the collision risk will exceed the safety target level which is unacceptable.The model can be used to calculate the collision risk of parallel approach yaw.The model can also provide theoretical support for the implementation of independent parallel approach at Capital Airport.Second,cross-runway collision risk assessment.The dissertation also studies the collision risk of the safe operation of the aircraft in the side runway mode in view of the vacancy of the side runway operation research.First,based on the analysis of themovement characteristics of the approach and take-off phases of the aircraft,a dynamic event motion interval is established.Second,the theoretical relative position of the aircraft pair on the side runway is studied in sections,and the aircraft pair dynamics is proposed.The interval calculation method is used to analyze the collision box overlap probability using the position error model.Then,a complete sideway runway dynamic collision risk model is established based on the collision probability relationship ratio.Finally,six months of radar data from Beijing Capital Airport are extracted respectively.The analysis of three parameters in the model includes the relationship of lateral overlap probability,vertical overlap probability,and collision probability.The results show that the increase of the crossing angle will lead to a decrease in the side overlap probability,with a peak around 57 s after take-off;the vertical overlap probability has no significant correlation with the crossing angle,and the maximum vertical overlap probability concentrated on the approach and go-around phase of the aircraft((40s-57s);analysis of the collision probability ratio(R)shows that the dynamic model more accurately reflects the real-time change of the risk with the crossing angle than the classic model.There is a negative correlation between the runway crossing angle and the collision risk.Increasing the runway crossing angle can significantly reduce the risk of running collision.Taking the layout of the side runways of Daxing Airport as an example,if the runway ends are spaced600 m apart,the runway crossing angle must be greater than 68°,and the risk will meet the safety target level specified by ICAO.Third,in terms of risk assessment models.In this paper,the structure of the classic event model is improved.The spherical surface spacer layer is used instead of the traditional plane spacer layer.The collision risk is calculated by using the extended collision box probability relationship ratio to improve the matching between the template and the actual aircraft operating state.The flight data of the simulated aircraft is used for simulation,and the conflict risk of the improved model is compared with the original model.Fourth,applied research in collision risk.In order to propose an effective lateralrunway operation control strategy to ensure the safe and efficient operation of Beijing Daxing International Airport,this article analyzes the operational conflict between the lateral runway and the parallel runway,and gives suggestions for controlling safety risks.In order to solve the operational conflict between the go-around aircraft on the parallel runway and the departure aircraft on the lateral runway,based on the concept of the Arrival Departure Window(ADW),an ADW determination method and actual calculated value based on the collision risk theory are given for the first time.It has been used in Beijing Daxing International Airport for the purpose of controlling operational risks.First,the Beijing Daxing International Airport's lateral runway was taken as the research object,and its runway layout,aircraft operating characteristics,and flight procedures were analyzed to determine the possibility of operational risk and the location range of the conflict zone.Second,based on the aircraft kinematics model and the characteristics of the relative position changes of the aircraft pair on the lateral runway,a real-time dynamic interval calculation model for the two aircraft was constructed.Then,a collision risk calculation model based on the position error theory was established;a phased solution algorithm was designed to push back the ADW boundary.Finally,drawing on the actual operation data of Beijing Capital International Airport for half a year,the ADW position calculation was performed,and the control simulator was verified.Simulator verification and actual operation results show that the proposed method and model can be used to determine the position of the ADW,and effectively control the operational risk between the lateral runway and the parallel runway.