Research On Supply-Demand Relationship Of China’s Imported LNG Shipping Based On System Dynamics Method

2020 is the year of completion of a well-off society and the 13th Five-Year Plan,Stand at this critical time,our country actively promotes the reform of energy consumption structure and gradually transition to low carbonization and environmental protection.For China’s energy market,it not only faces this great challenge,but also presents huge opportunities.In the international LNG market,the price of natural gas decreases as the price of crude oil continues to decrease.Natural gas supply is relatively sufficient,and the global LNG shipping market also has a slightly oversupply phenomenon.Driven by the steady development of the macro economy and environmental protection policies such as "National Oil and National Transportation" and "Coal to Gas",China’s natural gas consumption demand is growing rapidly,which in turn promotes the continuous increase in China’s imported LNG shipping demand.China’s supply of imported LNG shipping is also increasing,However,due to the late start of China’s LNG fleet,despite the rapid development of LNG ’s own fleet in recent years and the increasing number of shipping vessels,it still cannot meet the needs of"National Oil National Transportation".A moderate increase in the number of China’s own fleet can increase the economic benefits of China’s LNG transportation companies t,and can better guarantee China’s energy transportation safety.This article analyzes and researches on the imported LNG shipping demand and the supply of our own fleet in China,hoping to play a reference role in improving the transportation capacity of our own LNG fleet and ensuring the safety and reliability of China’s energy.This article first analyzes the transportation demand and the supply capacity of the own fleet in China’s imported LNG shipping market.In terms of transportation demand,it analyzes the current status of China’s imported LNG shipping demand and the main factors affecting transportation demand;analyzes China’s own ships During the supply of fleet capacity,the scale of LNG’s own fleet,imported LNG routes,LNG receiving stations and the development history of LNG transport companies were introduced respectively,and the four major factors affecting transportation supply were further elaborated.Secondly,the transportation demand and supply are predicted by the quadratic exponential smoothing method and the GM(1,1)gray forecasting model respectively,which will be used to analyze the simulation results of the system dynamics model and analyze the future supply and demand trends.Based on the above qualitative and quantitative analysis results,the boundary of China’s imported LNG shipping supply and demand system is determined,and the basic causal relationship between system variables is determined to construct a system dynamics model;model verification and simulation are performed to analyze the simulation results of supply and demand,Adjusting policies and conducting single and combined simulations,it was found that with economic development and energy structure adjustment,China’s import LNG shipping demand continues to expand,the supply of its own fleet is increasing but the growth rate is insufficient,and the gap between supply and demand is widening.Combined with the analysis of the results of China’s imported LNG shipping supply and demand,it puts forward suggestions for the development of China’s imported LNG shipping market,and rationally configures the supply of China’s own fleet on the basis of satisfying energy security and reliability.