| In the context of the rapid spread of the Internet and information technology,modern economic elements break the traditional industrial development,redefine the industrial division of labor system based on production mode,commercial service model,and so on,developed countries have launched new industrial strategies to seize the value chain.China relies on the advantages of resources to make the industrial economy grow rapidly,and in the face of the impact of the upgrading of the consumer market and environmental pollution,the industrial structure characterized by high energy consumption,heavy pollution and low technology is difficult to adapt to the development requirements of the new normal economy,seriously hindering the process of sustainable development.Shandong Province is a typical microcosm of Chinese economic and environmental problems,it is urgent to optimize and adjust the industrial structure to achieve the transformation of old and new dynamic energy and the coordination of human-terrestrial relations,so it is of great significance to study the spatial and spatial evolution of industrial structure and environmental effects to transform the mode of economic development and promote the construction of ecological civilization.Based on the perspectives of overall and segmented industries,diversification and advanced,the research summarizes the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of industrial structure in Shandong Province by using industrial structure change coefficient,deviation share analysis method,Gini coefficient,and location entropy.The decoupling index is used to calculate all parts of Shandong Province.The decoupling state of the city’s"three wastes"emissions and output value,and the use of multiple linear regression models to explore the environmental effects of industrial structure evolution.Finally,based on the research results,the adjustment and optimization path and specific countermeasures of the industrial structure in Shandong Province are proposed.The main conclusions are as follows:（1）The periodical characteristics of the industrial structure of Shandong Province from 1998 to 2017 were obvious.The changes were large before 2006,and they entered a period of stable changes after 2006.The industry is divided into stable,volatile,growth,and decline industries.According to the analysis of deviation share,all industries in the first,second,and third stages are in the stage of large-scale and structural growth.The fourth to fourth stages are mining,textile,Structural contradictions in 8 types of industries,including ferrous metal smelting and calendar processing,have appeared;the industrial structure diversification index has shown a downward trend,and the advanced index has shown an upward trend,both of which have lagged behind the overall national level;the development of resource-intensive industries has been stable with an average proportion At 28.24%,labor-intensive and capital-tech-intensive industries show opposite development trends.In 2008,capital-tech-intensive industries surpassed labor-intensive industries and became dominant.By 2017,their share of industry increased to 38.18%,while the proportion of pollution-intensive industries It is 15.13%higher than the clean industry on average,and has always dominated the structure.（2）The structural changes in the eastern Shandong region were relatively smooth from 1998 to 2017.The changes in the southwest,northwest,and central Shandong regions were relatively large.The structural changes in Jining and Rizhao were the largest.The average industrial structure Moore indices were 0.506 and 0.490,respectively.The industrial structure was diverse.The high-value areas are concentrated in northwest,south,and east Shandong,while the low-value areas are concentrated in southwest and central Shandong.The trend of resource-based and intensified high-end manufacturing industry development is decreasing.The industrialized high-level high-value area presents a point-like distribution with Jinan and Qingdao as the core,a band-like distribution extending from the Jinan and Qingdao line,and then the cluster development around the Jinan and Qingdao metropolitan area;the high degree of concentration of capital and technology-intensive industries For resource-and labor-intensive industries,resource-intensive industries gradually surpassed capital and technology-intensive industries and became the types with the greatest regional differences.The resource-intensive,labor-intensive,and capital-technology-intensive specialized high-value areas are southwest of the Zaozhuang and Dongying connection,respectively.-Distribution in the northeast direction,"concave"shape distribution with Jinan as the core,and belt-block pattern evolution with Jinan and Qingdao as the core.Pollution-intensive industries have lower spatial concentration and differences than clean ones,and their specialized production is widely distributed in central,southwest,and northwestern Shandong,while clean specialized production is concentrated in Jinan and Eastern Shandong Province;Shandong Province The average industrial structure similarity of each city group first increased and then decreased.In 2017,the industrial structure similarity of Jinan and Qingdao reached the highest 0.872 in the province.（3）From 1998 to 2017,the decoupling state of industrial wastewater,SO2emissions and output value in most prefectures and cities in Shandong Province experienced the evolution of the absolute-relative-absolute or decline decoupling state.Wastewater and SO2 emissions in Laiwu have experienced an expansion negative decoupling state.In the analysis of solid waste discharge decoupling,most cities have experienced relative-absolute or decline decoupling or absolute or relative-expansion negative-absolute or decline decoupling,Weifang and Liaocheng showed absolute negative decoupling.（4）Using panel data from 1998 to 2017 in various cities in Shandong Province to explore the environmental effects of industrial structure evolution,and found that the improvement of the advanced level of industrial structure can effectively reduce the discharge of industrial wastewater and solid waste,but the SO2 emissions have not shown Obvious emission reduction effects,increasing the proportion of capital-intensive industries can reduce solid waste emissions,and has no significant effect on wastewater and SO2 emissions.Increasing the proportion of pollution-intensive industries will increase wastewater,SO2 and solid waste emissions.The"three wastes"emissions are extremely explanatory.（5）According to the space-time evolution laws and environmental effects of the industrial structure in Shandong Province,propose an optimization path and specific countermeasures to promote its advanced and ecological transformation.We should actively explore market-oriented transformation mechanisms,strengthen the protection of finance and intellectual property rights,and formulate Functional industrial policies;take featured industrial parks as a platform,strengthen industrial specialization and build a new pattern of linkage and effective industrial integration;improve independent innovation capabilities,build regional innovation systems,and improve industrial intelligence and high-end levels;pass environmental regulations Means to improve pollution control methods,build a green industrial production base,and maximize the economic and environmental benefits of industrial production.The research has the following innovations:on the one hand,it explores the spatial and temporal evolution of industrial structure in Shandong Province from the perspectives of overall and subdivision,diversification and advanced,and different types of industry structure;Environmental effects of structural evolution from different perspectives.The research is of great significance for optimizing the industrial structure of Shandong Province,accelerating the conversion of new and old kinetic energy in industrial development,and realizing the coordination of human-land relations. |
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