Research On The Trade Effect Of The United States Anti-dumping On Chinese Steel Products

The steel industry in China has been one of the most frequent industries to launch anti-dumping investigations by the United States,they maintains that the global steel price is lowered due to the excess of steel capacity in China,which causes the US to close off some steel factories.In the context of the global steel overcapacity,all countries are eager to solve the problem of their own overcapacity,pointing fingers at China,the trade friction with steel is increasing frequent.Under the background of internal and external problems,China’s steel industry is struggling.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the trade effect of US anti-dumping on Chinese steel products and put forward corresponding countermeasures.This paper is divided into five parts to discuss,the first part is the introduction.The second part is the theoretical analysis,defining the four trade effects of anti-dumping measures,and using Bertrand price competition model for theoretical analysis.The third part is the status quo analysis,in-depth analysis of the current situation,characteristics and causes of the United States anti-dumping on Chinese steel products.The fourth part is empirical analysis.Firstly,it roughly estimates whether there is trade destruction effect,trade diversion effect and trade deflection effect in the US anti-dumping on Chinese steel products through observation of trade data.Then use the monthly data of steel products anti-dumping cases in 1995-2015 which was initiated by the USA against China,using OLS model,cite six dummy variables which are before the application,after the application,before the preliminary,after the preliminary,before final decision and after the final decision,empirical test that the existence and size of the trade effects of different stage in the process of US anti-dumping on Chinese steel products.The fifth part is the countermeasure part,according to the present situation analysis and the empirical analysis,this paper put forward the countermeasures of steel industry in the future to respond to foreign antidumping from the macro and micro-level.The result shows that once the US government make the affirmative preliminary,no matter what the final decision is,the export volume of the products to the US will decrease.And imports of similar products from competing countries such as Mexico and Indonesia will increase;Moreover,China’s exports of the products involved will increase to the third market,but more to developing countries than developed countries.China should cooperate with the"One Belt And One Road" policy to diversify the market,adjust the structure of steel products exported to the United States,pay close attention to the US anti-dumping cases against the steel products of China’s competitors;We should make full use of the time-lag effect of anti-dumping,make good use of price commitment,and establish an early warning mechanism of anti-dumping so as to reduce the loss of anti-dumping investigation.