Since the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative,the production of Ningbo Zhoushan Port has developed rapidly,and the capacity of the Xiashimen channel as a large-scale ship access channel has become saturated,in order to meet the needs of current and future production development of Ningbo Zhoushan Port,especially the development of Liuheng Port Area and Meishan Port Area are required.The Tiaozhoumen channel is used as the entry and exit public channel of the second large ship to alleviate the navigation pressure of the channel.In the case of the Tiaozhoumen channel and its adjacent waters,there are many intersections,large traffic density,complicated hydrometeorological conditions,etc.,and the ship often has a poor navigation environment in the pilotage process,resulting in a blocked navigation situation.The necessity and importance of pilot risk research.Firstly,this paper introduces the basic situation of the Tiaozhoumen channel from three aspects:meteorological environment,hydrological environment and traffic environment,and analyzes the traffic flow of the Tiaozhoumen channel and the relevant waters in Zhejiang in recent years,traffic accidents and traffic management.Secondly,through the guidance of the actual ship piloting work and expert questionnaires,the multi-level pilot risk assessment index system was constructed and improved from the four aspects of people,ship,environment and management,and at the same time in the index system.Qualitative and quantitative research on the corresponding elements;Finally,by comparing the advantages and disadvantages of various evaluation methods,the multi-level grey evaluation method is selected to evaluate the navigation risk of the Tiaozhoumen Channel.In the evaluation process,the indicators for quantifying the available data are evaluated in a quantitative manner;for the indicators that cannot be quantified,the evaluation is conducted from a qualitative perspective in combination with the survey and the expert questionnaire.Finally,the evaluation results are reversed to find the factors with lower scores and higher risks,and corresponding solutions and suggestions are proposed to lay a theoretical foundation for securing the navigation safety of the Tiaozhoumenn channel. |