Subway Operation Risk Assessment Based On Fuzzy ISM Model And FMICMAC Model

Subway is favored for its high efficiency,convenience,large traffic volume and less ground space.Many countries regard subway as the solution to the traffic pressure in large cities and densely populated areas.Subway has become an important part of the world's public transport infrastructure.As China's urban scale continues to expand and the process of urbanization continues to accelerate,the scale of subway is also expanding,and the operating mileage is increasing gradually.In terms of the safe operation of subway,more and more attention has been paid by the society.For metro operation security managers,it is important to identify the linkages and interactions between the risk factors of subway operations and to prioritize the governance of risk factors.The main research work of this paper is as follows:(1)The occurrence law of subway operation accidents is analyzed.Combined with the actual operation situation of subway in China,this paper analyzes the subway operation accidents at home and abroad.According to the accident grade,the reason,the occurrence time and so on carries on the statistics classification,analyzes the accident intrinsic rule.(2)According to the rules and characteristics of subway operation accidents,from "people"(personnel),the "machine"(equipment),"ring"(environment)and "tube"(management)four level of analysis of risk factors for subway,explore the subway operation before and after the accident,contact and interaction of the risk factors.The principal component analysis method was used to construct the subway operation risk evaluation index system.(3)The fuzzy interpretation structure model(ISM)is used to model and analyze the subway operation risk,and the structural model of subway operation risk is constructed.The 18 risk factor evaluation indicators were divided into five levels.The direct,transitional and underlying factors of the subway operation risk were found out,and the accident chain of the accident was analyzed according to the ISM model results.(4)Based on the structural model of subway operation risk,the fuzzy cross-impact matrix multiplication model(FMICMAC)is used to model and analyze the subway operation risk evaluation index,and the FMICMAC model of subway operation risk is obtained.According to the driving factors and dependence of various risk factors,the risk factors are divided into four categories: self-made factors,dependent factors,contact factors and independent factors.The subway operation security manager can give different attention to various factors according to the classification result of risk factors.The higher the driving force,the more attention needs to be paid,and the higher the dependence,the more rigorous examination.Priority is given to the management of risk factors based on the type of risk factor.