Modeling And Performance Analysis For Emergency Response Actions Of Industrial Fire Based On Petri Net

The rapid development of industry provides a strong guarantee for the prosperity of the country,the stability of society and the people's living and working in peace and contentment.At the same time,the people's yearning for a better life can not be separated from the development and support of industry.According to statistics,since the reform and opening up,China's industrial gross product has been growing steadily and rapidly every year.In 2017,the industrial gross domestic product has reached RMB 33.46 trillion,accounting for 40.46% of the gross domestic product.However,due to the occurrence of industrial fires,effective emergency response actions aren't often taken quickly,resulting in the domino effect,which poses a greater threat to people's lives and causes greater losses to social economy.However,emergency response consists of a series of emergency response actions,which can effectively curb the rapid and violent development of fire,so as to prevent the spread of fire and secondary accidents to reduce the accident losses.Therefore,how to do the analysis of emergency response in industrial fire is the key to improve the efficiency of emergency response and reduce the probability of domino effect.Based on the background of industrial fire,this paper takes emergency response actions as the research object.Considering emergency resources,the relationship between emergency actions and emergency response time,this paper combines with the domestic and foreign research on industrial fire,emergency response,the application of Petri net and other related fields.This paper puts forward the modeling method of emergency response actions in industrial fire based on hierarchical colored time Petri net,the analytical method of emergency response time,and performance analysis method based on isomorphic Markov chain.Firstly,according to the emergency response process of industrial fire,the emergency resources(fire trucks,equipment,etc.)and emergency actions are described,and the process analysis is carried out.Then,combined with Petri net theory,The so-called place is used to represent the status-in-situ of the emergency response,whereas the transition denotes the emergency response actions and the flow of tokens in the net signifies the changes of the emergency states,with the tokens being differentiated by various colors.A modeling method for emergency response actions in industrial fire based on hierarchical colored time Petri net is proposed.Secondly,redefining the places,transitions,color sets and functions,a general hierarchical colored time Petri net model(HCTPN)is established for emergency response in industrial fire by this modeling method,considering the relationship between emergency resources,emergency actions and emergency response time.Thirdly,a time analysis method of emergency response(i.e.five different time patterns)is proposed,including time serial gate,time output AND gate,time input AND gate,time output OR gate,and time input OR gate.The time performance of the model is analyzed.Then,based on HCTPN,taking tank fire as an example,the emergency response time and the probability of domino effect are discussed under different cooperation modes of emergency response actions.These are verified by CPN Tools simulation.Finally,the HCTPN model of emergency response in industrial fire is anal yzed by using the performance analysis method based on isomorphic Markov chain.And the stable probability of each marking in the isomorphic Markov chain is calculated based on the case of storage area.The quantitative indicators such as the average token number of the places and the utilization ratio of the transitions,are obtained to analyze the performance of emergency response actions.In addition,the sensibility analysis of emergency response actions is of great significance to the optimization and evaluation of the model.Through research and analysis,it is concluded that the modeling method of emergency response in industrial fire based on Petri net can well describe the emergency resources and the logical relationship of emergency response actions.Petri net model for the emergency response process can be established by the modeling method.And the time performance of the HCTPN model can be effectively analyzed by the proposed time analysis method.Besides,the performance analysis method based on isomorphic Markov chain can be used to analyze its performance quantitatively.All these can provide theoretical and practical guidance for improving the efficiency of emergency response and reducing the probability of domino effect.