Performance Analysis Of Urban Refinery Emergency System Based On Scenario Construction

With the rapid development of China's economy,the urbanization is speeding up,and the phenomenon of "city surrounding chemical industry" has gradually entered the public view.Urban refinery refers to the existing refinery in the beginning of construction in relatively remote environment.due to the development of the city,making the refinery sensitive areas gradually gathered many persons are concentrated,many refineries from these sensitive areas of distance has reached or even less than the critical value of safety distance and health protection distance of relevant regulations and standards the provisions,has brought great challenges to the safe development of the city.The main difference between the urban refinery and the general refinery is that the surrounding people are intensive and the number of important facilities are more,and the loss of the surrounding personnel and the important facilities is mostly in the late development of the accident.In other words,urban refineries are more likely to cause irreparable damage to urban residents and public property,and the perfect emergency system can effectively control the expansion of urban refinery accident situation,significantly reduce the consequences of the accident,so the establishment of efficient emergency systems are particularly important for the urban refineries.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study the performance of urban refinery emergency system.Based on the dual characteristics of urban type refinery "enterprise" and "urban",the initial definition of urban refinery is given from the aspects of historical background,geographical location,urban planning and personnel distribution,The plant emergency system made a brief overview.Due to the complexity of the emergency system of urban refinery,this paper uses the scenario construction and Petri net modeling to model and analyze the urban refinery emergency system.Firstly,the basic idea of the construction of the urban refinery emergency system is put forward,the ontology model of the urban refinery emergency system is constructed,and the basic process of the performance analysis of the emergency Petri net system is given.Then,the scene of fire and explosion accident of LPG spherical tank is constructed,and the accident consequence model and emergency process scenario model are established respectively.As the whole emergency process is composed of many small events,so the scenario model can be transformed into the workflow model,on the basis of the establishment of Petri net model.According to the existing emergency system of urban refinery A,this paper establishes the workflow and Petri net model.Obviously,the existing emergency system obviously can not meet the basic requirements of the urban refinery emergency system.Then,according to the results of the scenario analysis and the OODA ring theory,the model of the refinery emergency system workflow model has been perfected,and a stochastic Petri net model conforming to the urban refinery emergency system is constructed,and the model structure of the former is compared and analyzed.This process can be used to design the function of the urban refinery emergency system and provide guidance.Due to the complexity of the model,the subsystem emergency response system of urban refinery A Emergency System is selected as an example.The isomorphic transformation is carried out with the Markov chain and the performance of the system is analyzed.The results of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis are given respectively.And so on,gives the conclusion of urban refinery A emergency system performance analysis,validates the effectiveness of the emergency system,proves the feasibility of the model in the structure,can meet the actual emergency system design requirements,and calculate the system average delay.Which provides theoretical guidance for simplifying the structure of urban refinery emergency system and optimizing practical emergency work flow.Finally,aiming at the problems of emergency system scenario construction and Petri net modeling,this paper puts forward the research prospect in model construction,model optimization,simulation and method promotion.