| During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period,green energy is the top priority for China.China has realized that natural gas,as a low-carbon energy source,fits with the nation’s energy demand and will play a critical role in the energy transition.But the actual industry development is slower than expected.By analyzing the major gas corporations in the world,the paper finds that the key factors of the sector are endowment and price of energy resource.A comprehensive analysis on domestic and foreign import gas reveals a trend of oversupply in China in the future.Given the critical import dependence,China has introduced a series of reforms on gas prices since 2013,which have led to negative impacts on important gas consumption sectors including power generation.With the levelized cost of electricity(LCOE)model,we find that under the prevailing gas supply structure and price level,the economy of utility gas power generation will remain unprofitable,while the combined cooling heating and power(CCHP)is only commercially feasible in coastal developed regions.If continuing,such a trend will not only bring forth disastrous consequences to gas power industry,but also damage the upstream gas industry,more importantly,impede the energy transition.We conclude the paper with policy implications on pricing mechanism reform,developing domestic unconventional gas and the R&D of gas turbine.In the context of China’s urgent need for energy transformation and low-carbon environmental protection.This paper estimates the economics of natural gas power generation based on the analysis and prediction of the key links upstream and downstream of the natural gas industry chain.According to statistics,the future of natural gas as a low-carbon environmentally friendly energy source is currently the most suitable energy for China’s national conditions,and will play a pivotal role in China’s future energy development process,and the natural gas power generation industry will be a key point for the rapid development of natural gas.Based on the research of typical foreign natural gas developed countries,this paper finds that the driving force of a country’s natural gas industry in the rapid development period is more driven by the natural gas power generation industry.By summarizing and summarizing,it is found that the key factors affecting the economics of the natural gas power generation industry are four.The same is true for the combination of China’s specific objective conditions.This paper will select two key factors that are most closely related to the economy for analysis.On the basis of a fully reliable and reasonable conclusion,the economy of natural gas power generation projects.Discuss the economics of natural gas power generation projects to ensure that the final policy recommendations are more reliable.The energy supply in the upstream gas market,natural gas prices and the downstream market are actually closely linked.Firstly,we analyze the current resource endowments in China,and make a reasonable analysis and forecast of the supply capacity of China’s natural gas upstream market.After fully estimating the supply capacity,we will analyze the structure of China’s natural gas supply.Currently,China’s upstream Conventional natural gas exploitation in the market is difficult,rather than the cost of conventional natural gas extraction,and it is more expensive.Especially,the development technology of shale gas is still in the research stage.In the face of the demand of the domestic downstream market,more solutions for upstream enterprises are Relying on imported natural gas to meet,such a supply structure has a greater impact on China’s natural gas trading properties.Since 2010,China has gradually promoted and implemented the reform of the natural gas price system.Large gas price fluctuations have had a huge impact on the downstream natural gas market.In particular,industrial enterprises and power generation enterprises have been the most affected.This is also the Chinese gas power project.Although it has always been in a favorable state in terms of policy,the promotion of a considerable part of China’s gas power projects has been repeated,and the third is stranded.The meager profits have become the scale of construction of gas and electricity projects that have not been able to reach the 13th Five-Year Plan..Based on the analysis of several key factors that may have a greater impact on gas and electricity projects,the LCOE model is used in two scenarios:centralized cogeneration(including peak shaving)and distributed cogeneration.Next,calculate the electricity cost of the natural gas power generation project.From the beginning of the project construction to the operation and maintenance stage,calculate the cost of the life cycle of the project,divide the country into regions,compare the local feed-in tariffs,and use sensitive The method of sexual analysis identifies the most important factors affecting the cost of power generation in natural gas power generation projects in different situations.Finally,combined with the problems in the different links of the natural gas industry chain obtained in each chapter of this paper,put forward practical and feasible policy recommendations. |
