Hybrid Simulation Analysis Of The National Carbon Market Based On Heterogeneous Modeling Of Controlled Emission Power Generation Enterprises

Mitigating climate change has become a global consensus.China is aiming to have carbon emissions peak before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060.The China national carbon market is one of the key measures to achieve this ambitious "30·60" target.Affected by non-electric energy systems and a wide range of social elements,the analysis of the carbon market will involve models in many fields,and the experience in building the domestic pilot market cannot be copied to the China national carbon market.In this regard,it is urgent to study simulation tools and modeling methods,so that market analysis will shift from pre-analysis based on historical data to pre-analysis based on simulation situation deduction to support the optimization of market operation mechanism parameters and the adjustment of market participants’ decision-making.Through hybrid simulation,causal\statistics\behavior-based models can be integrated,which is a method to resolve such problems.Based on this,the main work I have further carried out based on the existing research results are as follows:1.The hybrid simulation method of carbon market based on DSMES platform is described,and the basic simulation data set is established.Aiming at the carbon market quota allocation method and carbon emission verification method of power generation industry,this paper puts forward the heterogeneity of market players when power generation groups participate in the carbon market.Finally,aiming at this problem and carbon emissions verification,quota allocation method,targeted data mining.The national coal-fired power unit data set and relevant carbon emission parameters are collected as the data basis of hybrid simulation.2.A micro-heterogeneous model of carbon emissions from coal plants nationwide is established.On the basis of data mining,the coupling mechanism of power generation parameters and carbon dioxide emission parameters of generator unis are analyzed and researched,and a mathematical model of carbon emissions of generator units is established.Finally,this thesis evaluated the heterogeneity of coal consumption rate for power supply by adjusting parameters.Subsequently,a complete micro parameter set data set of coal plants nationwide is established.Based on this,considering the heterogeneity of coal consumption rate,the micro and macro supply and demand of carbon market in different scenarios are calculated,the nonmonotonicity of key parameters on the market supply and demand is researched,and the market operation trend and possible risks are analyzed to evaluate the rationality and effectiveness of the market policy.3.The hybrid simulation of multi-scenario situation of China national carbon market is carried out.The micro parameters in the above part are clustered from the unit level data to the enterprise level data,and the physical carbon market parameter set of the enterprise level is established.Subsequently,the behavior model of market players is established to predict the possible scenarios of the national carbon market.Based on the DSMES simulation platform and the behavior model of the market participants,the dynamic deduction of the market situation is carried out to study the dynamic response of the market to a given behavior mode,to anticipate the possible risks of the market,and to give the corresponding control suggestions.