Spatio-Temporal Characteristics And Spillover Effects Of Agricultural Carbon Emission Intensity In Xinjiang

Agriculture is the second largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in the world.Promoting carbon sequestration in agriculture and reducing agricultural greenhouse gas emission intensity will play an important role in achieving China’s "double carbon" goal on schedule.As an important agricultural production base in China,Xinjiang inevitably leads to the problem of agricultural carbon emission while vigorously developing agricultural economy.In-depth analysis of the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and spillover effects of agricultural carbon emission intensity in Xinjiang is helpful to formulate scientific carbon reduction and sequestration strategies and realize the green and low-carbon development of agriculture in Xinjiang.Based on the externality theory,agroecology theory,sustainable development theory and spatial effect theory,this paper determined the agricultural carbon emission source based on the analysis of the current agricultural development situation in Xinjiang,and constructed the agricultural carbon emission measurement system in Xinjiang from four aspects: agricultural land utilization,rice planting,livestock and poultry breeding and straw burning.The agricultural carbon emission intensity of 14 prefectures(cities)in Xinjiang during 2001-2021 was calculated,and the spatio-temporal characteristics of agricultural carbon emission intensity in Xinjiang were analyzed by non-parametric kernel density estimation method,Dagum Gini coefficient and its decomposition method.Furthermore,the spatial autocorrelation effect and the spatial spillover effect of each influencing factor of agricultural carbon intensity in Xinjiang were included into the STIRPAT model of agricultural carbon intensity,and the partial differential method was further used to explore the spatial spillover effect of each influencing factor on agricultural carbon intensity,and the contribution degree of each explanatory variable to agricultural carbon intensity in Xinjiang was analyzed.And put forward Xinjiang agricultural carbon reduction countermeasures and suggestions.The study found:(1)The total agricultural carbon emission and agricultural carbon emission intensity in Xinjiang showed the sequential characteristics of "fluctuating rise" and "continuous decline" respectively.The spatial distribution characteristics of agricultural carbon emissions in Xinjiang changed obviously.The total agricultural carbon emissions showed the spatial distribution characteristics of "more in the south and less in the north".The high-value areas were mainly distributed in southern Xinjiang and parts of northern Xinjiang,while the low-value areas were distributed in eastern Xinjiang.Agricultural carbon emission intensity in all states(cities)showed a decreasing trend,but the reduction difference was large,and the spatial distribution showed a "high north-south,low middle" feature.(2)The overall gap of agricultural carbon emission intensity in Xinjiang showed a decreasing trend,and regional differences were the main source of spatial differences.From 2001 to 2021,the overall Gini coefficient of agricultural carbon emission intensity in Xinjiang mainly experienced a trend of "declining,rising and declining",and the differences among regions were in descending order from south Xinjiang to East Xinjiang,North Xinjiang to South Xinjiang,and North Xinjiang to East Xinjiang.From the perspective of sources and contribution rates of regional differences,the average contribution rate of inter-regional differences is 55.66%,followed by intra-regional differences with an average contribution rate of 27.61%,and the contribution rate of supervariable density is the least.(3)Agricultural carbon emission intensity in Xinjiang has strong spatial correlation and obvious spatial agglomeration.From the perspective of global spatial correlation,Moran’s I of agricultural carbon emission intensity in Xinjiang from 2001 to 2021 is positive overall,and there is a positive correlation in geographical space.From the perspective of local spatial correlation,agricultural carbon emission intensity in different states(cities)presents four clustering characteristics: "high-high","low-high","low-low" and "high-low" in space,and "high-high" and "low-low" clustering types are dominant.(4)Agricultural carbon emission intensity in Xinjiang was affected by multiple factors,and there was significant spatial spillover effect.Among them,agricultural mechanization level and agricultural industrial structure are the key factors to promote the reduction of agricultural carbon emission intensity,and agricultural production disaster area is the driving factor of agricultural carbon emission intensity.From the direct effect,the contribution rates of urbanization level,agricultural economic development level,agricultural mechanization level and agricultural industrial structure to the agricultural carbon emission intensity in the region are-0.4746,-1.0632,-2.3641 and-2.4805,respectively.From the indirect effect,the level of agricultural economic development,the level of agricultural mechanization and the structure of agricultural industry in this region have a spatial carbon reduction effect on the neighboring areas,and the degree of agricultural production disaster has a significant promoting effect on the agricultural carbon emission intensity in this region and the neighboring areas.Therefore,this paper puts forward the following countermeasures and suggestions for agricultural carbon emission reduction: optimizing and upgrading agricultural industrial structure to curb carbon emission;Building a regional collaborative management system for agricultural carbon emissions;Strengthen low-carbon agricultural scientific and technological innovation and technical support;Establish and improve agricultural disaster risk early warning and post-disaster insurance mechanisms;We will strengthen publicity and science popularization to foster new types of agricultural operators.