Study On The Contagion Effect Of Credit Risk In China's Coal Industry

Coal industry is the basic industry of our country's economy and plays an important role in the development of national economy and society.The healthy operation of this industry is of great significance to the stable development of our country's economy.Since the 21 st century,the economic links between enterprises have become more and more close,and the high correlation among coal enterprises makes the coal industry have greater credit risk,which not only increases the possibility of credit risk contagion,but also complicates the credit risk management within the industry.Studying the credit risk of the enterprise itself without considering its contagion effect can no longer meet the needs of all walks of life for credit risk management.In this context,if the coal industry wants to achieve further rapid development,the first thing is to manage the credit risk and risk contagion effect of the industry.However,most of the current research on coal credit risk contagion focuses on the micro-perspective,few scholars from the perspective of the industry as a whole to study the credit risk contagion effect.Whether there is credit risk effect in coal industry and how to measure it remain to be solved.Firstly,this paper combs the relevant literature on credit risk and its contagion effect,establishes the research framework,and explains the related theory of credit risk contagion in coal industry in China.Secondly,this paper analyses the current situation of credit risk in China's coal industry,and finds that the credit risk in China's coal industry is obviously differentiated,and individual enterprises are facing higher credit risk.Based on the analysis of the current situation,this paper discusses the problems existing in the credit risk management of the coal industry.Thirdly,this paper introduces the credit risk assessment and contagion effect model of coal industry,and constructs SIR model of coal industry in China with the help of contagion pathology theory,carries out stability analysis,and finds out the conditions for judging the contagion effect of credit risk.Fourthly,starting with the credit risk assessment,this paper constructs a support vector machine model using the relevant data of the coal industry,in order to forecast and classify the coal enterprises.Then the parameters of SIR model are estimated by NLS method,and the contagion effect of credit risk in coal industry is analyzed.Finally,according to the conclusion of this study,the paper givessome suggestions to avoid the credit risk of coal industry.